Dover, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

167
FXUS66 KPQR 010941
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
241 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Fall-like weather continues through much of the
week as we move into October. Expect periods of rain/rain
showers through at least Thursday as a low pressure system
brings cooler and unsettled weather across the region. Breezy
southerly winds are expected, along with rain showers and
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system remains
offshore. Any thunderstorms that develop will bring potential
for small hail, gusty winds, and funnel clouds. Dry weather is
expected to return for the weekend while temperatures remain
seasonably cool, before warming back into the 70s by early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday...Another round of
precipitation is on deck for today as a low currently centered
near 48.91N/132.43W will push an additional frontal system over
the region. Expect increasing clouds and rain showers through
this evening as the frontal system move onshore and lift across
the Pacific Northwest. This low pressure system will continue to
gradually weaken as it meanders toward the WA/OR coast through
Friday.
Expect showery precipitation through at least Thursday. Cooler
air aloft will also result in elevated instability across the
CWA, with chances for thunderstorms (15-25%) along the coast
today, spreading inland late this morning with the thunderstorm
threat persisting into the evening. Any passing thunderstorm
can bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail. Based on
local guidance, this weather pattern also sets up the potential
for funnel clouds as well as water spouts near the coast.
Breezy southerly winds will continue with the strongest winds along
the coast, especially beaches and headlands where wind gusts up
to 45 mph will be likely from late this morning through the
evening. Inland areas will mainly see wind gusts up to 35 mph
for the same time period. There remains a very low (5-10%
chance) of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph within the Willamette
Valley. With leaves still on the trees, there is a small chance
for a few broken tree limbs.
Total rainfall amounts through Thursday are expected to vary
significantly across the area. This makes it difficult to
pinpoint precipitation amounts at a specific location, but the
probabilistic guidance does provide reasonable low-end to high-
end amounts that will be possible through Thursday. Coastal
locations could see anywhere from 0.10"-0.25" (10th percentile)
to 0.50"-1.25" (90th percentile); while the inland lowlands
could see anywhere from Trace-0.25" (10th percentile) to
0.40"-1.00" (90th percentile). Overall, total rainfall for
today through Thursday is likely (65-85% chance) to be around
0.25"-0.75" for coastal locations and 0.10"-0.40" for inland
locations.
By Friday, most ensemble members are showing drier weather returning
through the weekend. WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows relatively
good agreement of the upper low dropping into northern California to
the Great Basin Friday to Saturday. Northwest flow likely to persist
into early weekend which will help keep daytime highs seasonably
cool. There is also fairly good agreement of an upper level
trough dropping out of Canada on Sunday, bringing more north to
northeast flow later Sunday into Monday with dry conditions and
temperatures likely warming back into the 70s for the start of
next week. /42-Hartsock
&&
.AVIATION...Active weather continues impacting NW Oregon and SW
Washington through the TAF period, bringing scattered showers and
increasing southerly winds to the region. Along the coast, expect
wind gusts up to 35 kts starting around 18Z Wednesday through
around 06Z Thursday before decreasing slightly with gusts up to
20 kts.
As showery conditions continue, ceilings along the coast
are expected to remain mainly MVFR, though ceilings could
occasionally rise to VFR or lower IFR. Inland areas are expected
to remain mainly VFR, with occasional drops towards MVFR.
Overall, flight conditions are expected to remain MVFR along the
coast and VFR inland, but given the widespread shower activity
flight conditions will likely fluctuate through the TAF period as
conditions could lower at any terminal in any heavier shower.
Additionally, thunderstorm chances increase across the entire
region after 18Z Wed with a 15-30% chance of isolated
thunderstorms through around 06Z Thu. Main impacts with any
thunderstorms are brief heavy rain that could lower ceilings or
visibility, gusty winds, and lightning.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the
TAF period, though a 15-20% chance of brief MVFR ceilings in
showers. South winds around 10 kts with an occasional gusts to 20
kts, 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms 18Z Wed through 01Z
Thu. /42
&&
.MARINE...Buoy observations continue to show elevated seas of
14-18 ft across all waters. Therefore, will maintain the current
Hazardous Seas Warning. Latest guidance continues to indicate a
second period of elevated winds from late Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday evening, mainly for all inner waters zones,
Zone PZZ271. As a result, have issued a Gale Warning for these
zones from late Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
evening. Generally, winds ease somewhat across all waters through
today, but seas will remain elevated through Wednesday night,
with widespread wave heights of 14-18 ft. /42
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will pose an additional
threat Wednesday. Storms will be capable of producing severely
limited visibility, gusty and erratic winds, lightning, small
hail, and even an isolated water spout in their local area.
Late in the week, the area of low pressure responsible for this
period of active weather will weaken and move inland while high
pressure builds over the northeastern Pacific. Winds will weaken
below 15 kt while seas subside below 10 ft by Thursday evening,
before the more seasonable patterns turns winds out of the north
to northwest at around 10 kt early Saturday morning. -Picard/HEC
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210-252-
     253-272-273.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ251-
     271.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ251.
Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
     for PZZ251.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ271.
Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for PZZ271.
&&
$$
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NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion