Dougherty, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

273
FXUS64 KLUB 131106
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain expected today, mainly
   west of I-27.
- Storm chances will overspread much of the area tonight through
   Sunday, with heavy rain being the main threat.
- Warm and dry conditions for most of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
A deep upper trough is currently driving significant monsoonal
activity across New Mexico. Cloud cover will increase through the
overnight hours as it shifts eastward. This will keep lows
moderated, generally in the mid 60s. While the main mid-level trough
axis will be moving over the Four Corners region, an initial wave
out ahead of it will track near the TX/NM border by mid-morning.
Firstly, this will lead to somewhat elevated southerly surface
winds, potentially peaking near 20 mph in the afternoon. Secondly,
it will bring showers and thunderstorms, mostly west of the I-27
corridor. Dewpoints continue to significantly drop farther east
front the mid 60s in the aforementioned region to near 50 off the
Caprock. Combined with the main upper jet taking a more
northeasterly track, this should prevent storms from making it very
far east in our area.
The main through axis will move over the area tonight into early
Sunday, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances for much
of the region. PWATs for both rounds of precipitation remain
elevated, potentially exceeding 1.5" for the second round. As such,
heavy rain will be the rain threat, however hail and brief strong
winds cannot completely ruled out. Despite the cloud
cover/precipitation, the southerly flow will allow for warmer
temperatures will continue with highs generally ranging from the mid
80s to near 90 off the Caprock.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The upper trough mentioned above will continue to bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area through Sunday. Again, heavy
rain remains a threat with potential training storms, however this
is not expected to be very widespread. Precipitation should taper
off by the evening hours as the trough departs to the north and
east. The upper pattern becomes messy thereafter. However, generally
southerly winds will continue, keeping temperatures on the warmer
side with highs consistently each day in the mid 80s to near 90. An
upper trough will move over the Great Plains around the mid-week
time frame. Slight storm chances may occur over portions of the area
Monday near a weak shortwave, but confidence for this remains low.
Highest precipitation chances would be late Wednesday into Thursday
as the main axis passes over our area. A strong ridge building to
the southwest looks to bring further warmer and drier conditions
Friday into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread
eastward this evening with greatest chances affecting KLBB and
KPVW. No mention was made in the TAF at KCDS due to lower chances
at that location. Low CIGS may move into the KLBB and KPVW
terminals after the thunderstorm activity moves east of the
terminals but uncertainty is too high to mention in the TAF at the
moment.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion