Dodger Stadium, California Weather Forecast Discussion

407
FXUS66 KLOX 231007
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
307 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...23/230 AM.
Monsoon moisture will increase today resulting in increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances that will continue into at least
Wednesday. The best chance for shower activity will be over Santa
Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. The shower activity will
decrease and end during the day Wednesday. Below normal
temperatures are expected through the weekend as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...23/258 AM.
A rather atypical day ahead. A 573 dam upper low off to the WSW of
LA will move to the north and will be to the SW pt Conception by
late afternoon. This will bring K-Indicies of 36-40, strong vorticity
advection, and strong difluent flow aloft to SLO and esp SBA
county as well as the coastal waters west of the Central Coast.
This will set the stage for potential TSTM outbreak. The mdl
trends have been slowly shifting the action more and more westward
and there is a good chance that LA county will not see much
convection at all. All Ventura County is more likely to see some
shower/TSTM activity would not be surprised if it too remained
dry. The convective chances will increase through the day and will
peak later in the afternoon and through the evening. With such
favorable convective parameters frequent lightning, strong and
gusty outflow winds and even hail are very possible with any TSTM
that forms. There will be plenty of lightning as well. Most of the
lightning will be accompanied by decent rains but some dry
lightning is possible on the outer fringes of any TSTM that forms.
The upper level flow pattern will also support training of showers
and TSTMs and this will increase the chc of flooding. Again it is
likely the SBA county will bear the brunt of this system.
The day will start off in a much quieter manor with marine layer
stratus covering most of the coasts and a little bit of the Santa
Ynez vlys. The marine layer is a little deeper today than ydy and
there is much less dense fog.
There will not be that much early cloudiness from the system and
this along with the fact that the sfc reflection of the upper low
will weaken the onshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming
to most of the area. Highs will end up most in the 80s across the
coasts with 90s in the vlys. The above normal humidities will make
it feel a little worse.
The system will slowly push to the north over night with the main
TSTM threat shifting up into SLO county. There will still be a
small chc of convection as far east as Ventura county esp if the
upper low wobbles a little to the east.
On Wednesday morning the convective threat will still be around
but mostly focused on SLO county, northern SBA county and the nrn
VTA mtns. By afternoon the threat will further decrease and it
will look more like a typical monsoon pattern with most of the
action confined to the VTA/SBA/SLO mtns and the interior vlys of
SLO and SBA counties. Max temps on Wednesday will fall 3 to 6
degrees across the board as party to mostly cloudy skies will
cover the area.
The preponderance of ensemble members keep the area dry on
Thursday. This has tilted the official forecast to a dry one. But
the upper low will still be in the vcnty so a non zero chc of
some mtn convection will remain. Otherwise look for some warming
across SLO/SBA counties as they will see more sunshine and some
cooling across VTA/LA counties as a stronger sea breeze returns.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...23/306 AM.
Low confidence forecast for Fri and Sat as long range ensemble
based forecasts keep the area dry. But with the upper low sitting
atop of the forecast area hard to be that confident that nothing
will develop. Skies should be mostly clear and max temps will not
exhibit much day to change and will remain several degrees blo
normal.
The upper low will finally push to the east on Sunday and a weak
ridge will build in. Max temps should rise 2 to 3 degrees each
day and most areas will end up a few degrees above normal on
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...23/0744Z.
Around 0630Z, the marine layer depth was around 700 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 1500 feet with a
temperature near 25 degrees Celsius.
Low to moderate confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence in the current forecast for valley and desert
terminals. Lower confidence in the current forecast for coastal
terminals.
There is a high-to-likely chance of LIFR to IFR conditions at
coastal terminals through at least 16Z. Lower confidence exists
due to middle level cloudiness moving over the region. There is a
10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms after 18Z.
KLAX...There is 30 percent of VFR conditions developing earlier
than forecast. LIFR conditions could develop as soon as 08Z, or as
late as 10Z. There is a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms after
18Z. Any east winds should be less than 7 knots.
KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...23/1252 AM.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Local Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts are possible over through tonight
across the entire waters, otherwise winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels.
For the water southwest through northwest along the Central
Coast, there is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level winds on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, increasing to 50-70 percent on
Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. The highest chances
will be for the waters beyond 30 NM offshore.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-50 percent
chance of SCA levels winds Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and
evenings. The highest chances will be for the western Santa
Barbara Channel.
Moisture with a tropical disturbance to the south will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters through
Wednesday night. Low confidence exists in the exact timing and
location of showers and thunderstorms. However, current guidance
suggests more widespread thunderstorm activity will be for the
waters north and west of San Miguel Island tonight. Any thunderstorm
that forms will be capable of producing locally gale force winds
and rough seas, dangerous lightning, heavy rainfall with reduced
visibility, small hail, and waterspouts.
&&
.BEACHES...23/101 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell is progged to develop
across the coastal waters over the weekend as Hurricane Narda
will enter a window favorable for southerly swells. Hazardous rip
currents and elevated surf are very likely to develop at Los
Angeles and Ventura County beaches over the weekend and into early
next week, but there is a moderate chance that a high surf
advisory will be needed over the weekend into Monday night or
Tuesday. If planning to head to the beach this weekend, please
check in with a lifeguard before entering the water.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion