Doctortown, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

129
FXUS62 KJAX 201159
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
759 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk Northeast Florida Beaches through Monday
- Inland Fog Late Tonight  Local Visibility < 1/2 mile
- Minor Tidal Flooding St. Johns River Basin Sunday - Tuesday
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 05Z Sunday. Broken ceilings of 3,500 - 4,500 feet will
likely progress westward across the terminals throughout the
afternoon hours, with clearing from east to west as the Atlantic
sea breeze boundary shifts inland. An isolated, brief shower
cannot be ruled out at SGJ after 16Z, but confidence was too low
to indicate vicinity coverage at this time. IFR to LIFR conditions
are expected to develop at VQQ after 05Z. Northwesterly surface
winds sustained around 5 knots early this morning will shift to
northeasterly towards 15Z, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots
early this afternoon. Light northerly surface winds will develop
elsewhere after 13Z, followed by winds shifting to northeasterly
while increasing to around 10 knots early this afternoon.
Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots
overnight at the SSI and SGJ terminals, and winds will shift
slightly to north-northeasterly towards sunrise on Sunday. Winds
at the inland terminals will diminish after sunset.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Early morning inland fog will continue to develop through sunrise.
Localized visibility below 1 mile at times may warrant a special
weather statement. Will continue to monitor observations/trends.
Mostly dry and breezier today as northeast winds increase into
the afternoon between surface high pressure nosing southward down
the lee side of the Appalachians and a coastal trough east of the
Florida Atlantic coast. Coastal gusts increase to 20-25 mph this
afternoon with inland gusts of 15-20 mph. Stronger onshore flow
will keep the coast a little cooler with highs in the low/mid 80s
while inland highs warm into the lower 90s. Brief coastal showers
will be possible by late morning, mainly south of St. Augustine
with isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm developing
inland near the St. Johns River basin by early afternoon, then
rain chances shifting farther inland toward the I-75 corridor and
westward through early evening toward the diurnal thermal low.
Given below normal deep layer moisture (precipitable water only
1.5 inches), kept rain chances 20% or less. Inland rain chances
fade early this evening, with a few coastal showers after midnight
tonight into Sunday morning.
Tonight, inland lows will range in the 60s while onshore flow
keeps the coast more mild with lows in the low 70s. Inland fog is
expected again tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
High pressure ridging will extend SSW from the New England coast
into the Carolinas. Dry air will extend into the region from the
ridging and the associated increased subsidence will help suppress
pops over the area with only silent pops now forecast due to below
average Precipitable Water levels 1.1-1.4 inches (average PW values
are around 1.6 inches for mid/late September). A pinched gradient
will exist over the coast/waters between the high to the NNE and
weak coastal troughing well east of the waters and will support
breezy winds at the coast 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph slightly
less inland 10-15 mph. Partly cloudy skies mainly from scattered
Atlantic stratocumulus clouds moving onshore and bubbling inland
under high level cirrus clouds and should allow highs to reach the
low 90s inland near I-75 and west of Waycross while the cooler
onshore flow will limit highs into the mid 80s at the beaches and
the upper 80s along I-95.
Sunday night, high level clouds will increase with increasing
coastal showers towards dawn. A gradient of lows will result due
to drier air inland with mid 60s over inland SE GA, the upper 60s
along I-10 inland to the suwannee Valley, with low 70s along the
coast and St Johns river and north central FL as NE onshore winds
continue 10-15 mph at the coast diminishing to around 5 mph inland.
Monday, frontal boundary to the south will begin to lift northward
along the FL peninsula/eastern Gulf as the high extending from the
NNE weakens and retreats in to the north Atlantic waters. Mostly
cloudy skies due to increasing high/mid level clouds north of the
frontal boundary will prevail Monday as scattered coastal showers
move onshore in the morning hours with isolated to scattered T`storm
coverage by the afternoon, especially from the St Johns river east
to the coast. Onshore winds will be lighter due to a weaker gradient
10-15 mph along the coast becoming 5-10 mph inland. Highs will be
a little less Monday due to more clouds with upper 80s inland and
the mid 80s coast.
Monday night, skies will become partly cloudy overnight as high
level clouds decrease with lows ranging from the mid 60s across
inland SE GA and the low 70s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tuesday, a lifting shortwave from the eastern Gulf will shift NE
across the area ahead of broad troughing progressing east across
the Appalachian mountains. High pressure will reform at the surface
more to the ENE through Wednesday with light easterly winds and
scattered coastal showers moving onshore in the morning hours
with isolated afternoon T`storms over coastal SE GA and inland
NE FL with slightly higher coverage over the St Johns river into
north central FL.
An upstream mid to upper level trough will deepen and swing to the
east Thursday into Friday, supporting a cold front moving across the
deep south Thursday and into our area by late Friday/early Saturday.
Timing difference between global models remain at this stage and for
now have 40-50 percent pops across the entire area late this week as
the front moves in.
Temperatures will warm from near normal Tuesday to above normal
Wednesday into Friday with low 90s near the coast to end the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Northeast winds increase today and persist through Sunday as high
pressure strengthens northeast of the region and a coastal trough
develops east of the Florida peninsula. Elevated winds will bring
periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. The high and
coastal trough weaken through mid-week next week, relaxing the
local gradient over the waters.
Rip Currents: High rip current risk today along northeast Florida
beaches as NE winds increase through the day. Maintained moderate
risk for southeast GA beaches today and Sunday. Persistent onshore
flow will continue a high rip current risk for northeast Florida
beaches through at least Monday. Breaker heights will build today
to 3-4 ft along northeast Florida beaches, peaking Monday in the
3-5 ft range along northeast Florida beaches, below high surf
advisory criterion.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Localized `action` stage tidal flooding is expected around high
tides today along the local coast and within the St. Johns river
basin. Latest model guidance (ETSS and PETSS) is trending lower
with high tide crests today given a weaker local nor`easter event
compared to events earlier in the month, and will continue to hold
off on a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time for today. Model
guidance continues to favor greater risk of tidal flooding in the
St. Johns River basin late Sunday through mid-week next week given
trapped tides/reverse flow event due to persistent easterly winds.
A coastal flood advisory may be needed for portions of the St.
Johns River basin late Sunday or by Monday to message minor tidal
flooding impacts early next week with inundation of 1-1.5 ft MHHW
datum around daily high tides.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  64  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  85  70  84  73 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  89  67  88  70 /  10   0  10   0
SGJ  86  72  86  73 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  62  92  69 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  91  68  90  70 /  20  10  10   0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion