Dirgin, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

310
FXUS64 KSHV 250606
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
106 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Some spotty showers will be possible today across portions of
   Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana.
- Milder air has infiltrated the region in the wake of a cold
   front and that milder air will hang with us through the
   upcoming weekend.
- Temperatures should begin to moderate next week but rain
   chances will remain nil.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
While the rainfall has ended across our region this evening, our
cold front has pushed through all but our eastern third late this
evening with the boundary continuing to move east and should be
completely east of our region by sunrise. The drier airmass will
continue to infiltrate our region in the wake of the front for
today with noticeably lower humidity.
While the cold front will be east of our region today, the upper
level longwave trough by sunrise will be near the Great Lakes,
into the Ohio Valley and Middle Red River Valley. Forcing in
association with this upper trough will combine with just enough
deep layer moisture across our northeast third and daytime heating
to produce perhaps some widely scattered showers in this post-
frontal atmosphere. So did deviate from the drier NBM model
output for today which is more closely in line to the HRRR and
HREF output. If we see this activity today, it should dissipate
quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
longwave trough will very slowly edge eastward tonight and through
the day Friday, taking any remaining forcing eastward with it and
thus, we begin a period of dry weather through the upcoming
weekend and through at least the middle part of next week.
Thus, the remainder of the forecast will center on temperature
trends and this milder post-frontal airmass will be here to stay
holding on through the weekend. While daytime high temperatures
will be near normal across most locations for the end of
September, the overnight low temperatures will be running a little
below normal with the drier airmass in place with middle 50s to
lower 60s at night through at least Sunday Night. Temperatures
should begin to slowly moderate early next week with surface
ridging still firmly anchored across our portion of the Southern
Plains.
Will watch the evolution of the remnant longwave trough next week
that will become cutoff from the westerlies across the Appalachians.
If upper ridging can form upstream of this longwave trough by the
middle part of next week, it could result in the longwave trough
retrograding back our way and that could perhaps result in some
small rain chances by the middle and later half of next week.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
For the 25/06 TAF period...VFR conditions across the region,
except at KELD/KMLU. Low cigs and patchy fog will remain at
KELD/KMLU overnight, with patchy fog possible at the remaining
stations. However, only felt enough confidence to include it at
KLFK. Low cigs will remain at KELD/KMLU tomorrow along with some
afternoon light rain. These low cigs will likely spread westward
into KTXK, and possibly KSHV. VFR conditions should eventually
return areawide by the end of the period. /20/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  65  86  62 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  84  64  84  59 /  20  20  10   0
DEQ  81  58  84  56 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  83  62  85  59 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  82  59  83  55 /  20  20   0   0
TYR  83  62  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  83  61  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  86  62  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion