Diggs, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

883
FXUS61 KAKQ 211858
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool and cloudy conditions tonight and Monday. A
warm up in temperatures from high pressure returns early next
week. Unsettled weather returns in the middle to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 256 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temperatures in wake of the backdoor cold front tonight.
- Patchy fog possible again tonight.
High pressure centered across the Northeast extends SW across the
forecast area this afternoon, resulting in ENE winds. A trough of
the Carlina coast developed along the frontal boundary that moved
through our forecast area yesterday and the gradient between this
feature and the aforementioned high remain has tightened. Winds
of 10 to 15 mph are being measured across our area, with gusts
up to 20 mph along the coast. Temperatures have reached the
upper 70s to low 80s and dew points are in the low-mid 60s,
making for quite a nice late September afternoon.
A weak coastal low pressure is likely to form off the cold front
later today well offshore. High pressure will remain stretched
across our area tonight, and winds will diminish overnight.
Temperatures will drop to near 60F and some patchy fog (locally
dense) is possible for most of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler Monday then warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure
  remains in the area.
The wedge of high pressure across the region will remain dominant
through Monday and continue to bring in a cooler, drier airmass.
Rain chances will be limited through Tuesday morning, with little
rainfall expected. A positively tilted trough will set up across
western/central Canada and the Plains by the start of the work week.
An upper low will start to develop across the Central U.S. by
Tuesday and slowly move eastward. This will help to displace the
surface ridge axis across the area to the south, which will allow
higher atmospheric moisture and warmer air to filter in across the
region. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s inland
and lower 80s near the coast. A cold front will extend from the NE
to the central US, but will likely remain to the north of the area
on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is a slight chance of
showers/storms Tuesday afternoon/evening in the piedmont and
northern counties. Expect lows Tuesday night in the mid 60s.
Wednesday`s temperatures will be similar to Tuesday in the mid 80s
for most (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore and northern counties).
The front will edge closer to the area by Wednesday, so have
maintained a chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are likely by the middle
  and end of the week.
An expansive ridge will set up off the SE coast during the week. The
upper low and associated trough will gradually advance eastwards
through the week and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
will return by the middle of the week. A surface front will move in
tandem with the trough, and more widespread rain is expected by
mid/late week as the front gradually moves through the area.
Atmospheric moisture content will between 1.5-2.0", and with the
front acting as a lifting mechanism, our area will likely see some
beneficial rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
upper 70s Thursday through the weekend as a cooler airmass builds in
behind the front. Lows will drop into the 60s, with a few
communities (mainly in the piedmont) possibly seeing upper 50s by
the weekend. There is some uncertainty in exactly when the front
moves through the region, so we will continue to monitor any trends
and adjust the forecast as necessary.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 153 PM EDT Sunday...
Intermittent MVFR CIGS are being observed at most sites this
afternoon, though only ORF and PHF have TEMPOs for degraded
flight conditions for the time being. CIGS will likely drop once
again tonight, with the possibility of fog also on the table.
Have included mention of BR at RIC as hi-res guidance is honing
in on the piedmont seeing the most fog development. Amendments
may be necessary if the confidence in fog development increases
by the next TAF update. Conditions should start to improve
after sunrise tomorrow. NE winds will be around 5-10 kts today,
with gusts of 15-20 kts expected at ORF through the afternoon.
Winds will relax overnight to around 5 knots of less.
Outlook: High pressure will then return Monday and Tuesday
along with VFR conditions. Unsettled weather is expected late
week with possible sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure builds N of the region this evening into tonight
  as a trough develops off the North Carolina Coast resulting
  in a strengthening northeast wind.
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Atlantic coastal
  waters, mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound.
- There is a high rip current risk for Monday and Tuesday.
This afternoon, high pressure (~1030 mb) is centered near or just
off the New England coast. Meanwhile, an inverted trough has
developed off the NC coast. NE winds are generally running around 15
to 20 knots (gusts to 25 knots) over the ocean and ~10 to 15 knots
elsewhere. Seas have increased from earlier today and now 5 to 6
feet across the southern waters and 4 to 5 feet further north. Winds
will continue to gust 20 to 25 knots into this evening, before
gradually diminishing later tonight as the pressure gradient begins
to relax. SCAs remain in effect for the Currituck Sound through this
evening, the mouth of the Ches. Bay through tonight, and the
Atlantic coastal waters through Monday as seas will be slow to
subside.
High pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday through the
middle of the week. This will result in largely benign and sub-SCA
conditions. However, TS Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane
as it curves N and NE to the E of Bermuda. This could result in 3 to
4 feet seas persisting through midweek. Forecast confidence is
rather low by later this week, particularly with respect to how far
S a backdoor cold front reaches as another high builds into New
England, before lifting back to the N ahead of a cold front
approaching from the NW. Regardless, most guidance depicts sub-SCA
conditions regardless of the forecast details.
A high rip current risk is forecast for Monday mainly due to long
period swell (3-4ft/11-12s) from TS Gabrielle (forecast to be
Hurricane Gabrielle). Long period swell continues into Tuesday, with
Tuesday expected to be another high rip current risk day.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide anomalies have increased to around +1 foot across the northern
Chesapeake Bay this afternoon, resulting in areas of nuisance to
locally minor flooding (Bishops Head MD). While tidal anomalies are
currently diminishing, another round of nuisance to locally minor
flooding is possible at high tide tonight around the area of Bishops
Head MD. Water levels remain elevated over the northern Bay into
early this week, with additional rounds of nuisance tidal flooding
remaining possible.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SW
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...AC/KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJB

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion