Dexter, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

433
FXUS61 KCAR 042312
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
712 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift towards the area tonight into Sunday
morning. High pressure remains south of the region through
Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday then crosses the area
Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure builds in
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Evening Update...
Skies are clear to mostly clear this evening with light winds,
allowing for optimal radiational cooling. Patchy fog remains
possible later tonight, mainly for eastern areas. Some minor
changes were made to sky cover, but overall the forecast remains
on track.
Tonight...
Mostly clear early tonight, then partly to mostly
cloudy later in the night. The weak cold front falls apart over
Downeast early this evening, then begins to lift back NE as a
warm front very late tonight. Can`t totally rule out a shower or
two grazing far NE Maine late tonight or early Sunday, and only
have a 20 percent chance in. Fog tonight is a tricky call. Some
CAMs have dense fog especially in eastern portions of the area,
but it`s a minority of them. Think that fog may be a tough go
considering the mid-level clouds increasing over Eastern Maine
later tonight. Went with patchy fog to be safe, but tentatively
holding off on anything more than patchy, and going conservative
in TAFs. Low temperatures tonight will be pretty close to this
morning, with mainly 40s.
Sunday...
Warm front lifts northeast in the morning, with any
mid-level clouds decreasing by late morning, leaving mostly
sunny skies the rest of the day. No rain associated with the
cold front except for a 20 percent chance of a shower over the
far NE before 9am. Quite warm with highs in the mid to upper
70s, except around 70 near the coast thanks to fairly weak
onshore flow. S/SW breeze 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night...
Despite mostly clear skies, looking warmer Sunday night, with
lows in the 50s. No rain and a light SW breeze. Could be some
fog near the coast late in the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unseasonably warm air mass will remain in place across the region
Monday with strong ridge in place to our south. Southwest flow will
transport very warm air into the region with record, or near record
afternoon highs possible under mainly sunny skies. Ridge continues
to move east Monday night with a mainly clear and mild night
expected.  High pressure continues to move east out into the open
waters of the Atlantic during Tuesday. Cold front approaching from
the northwest begins to move into far northern areas by afternoon.
Tuesday will continue to feature afternoon highs well above normal
for this time of year, although not quite as warm as Monday`s. Record
highs will once again be possible. Expect the chance for showers across
northern areas Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front slowly crosses northern and central areas Tuesday night.
Some models continue to suggest a weak area of low pressure
will move northeast along the front later Tuesday night into
Wednesday with a band of rain, mainly across central and
southern sections of the forecast area. The front moves well
offshore later Wednesday through Wednesday night. Wednesday will
be much cooler than Tuesdays highs in the wake of the front with
the potential for clouds and rain. Thursday will even be cooler
with afternoon highs only in the lower 50s north and mid to
upper 50s central and Downeast. The high moves east Friday and
Friday night with continued dry weather and chilly temperatures.
More seasonable weather returns by Saturday ahead of the next
approaching front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Tonight...Mainly VFR with light winds. However, can`t rule out
local IFR or lower late tonight due to FG/BR, with the best
chance (60 percent) at PQI and elevated (30 percent) chances at
CAR and HUL.
Sunday...Mainly VFR, other than the small chance of IFR early
morning mentioned above. S/SW wind increasing to around 10 kts
in the afternoon.
Sunday Night...Mainly VFR with SW wind 5 kts or less. Patchy fog
possible late in the night mainly at BHB.
SHORT TERM:
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR, lowering to MVFR over the north late.
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR. Chance of rain.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR. NW wind.
Thu..VFR/MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions below small craft through Sunday night
with minimal fog.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, when
rainfall of a quarter to three quarters of an inch is likely.
Could see some gusty southwest winds to 15-20 mph both Monday
and Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should
see a return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty
northerly winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Sunday October 5th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou              77/2005           77
Bangor               81/1946           76
Millinocket          82/1916           76
Houlton              78/2007           74
Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               74/1946        82
Bangor                84/1946        82
Millinocket           82/1946        83
Houlton               73/1957        82
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        76
Bangor                84/1946        77
Millinocket           81/1946        78
Houlton               76/2016        76
Caribou has only reached 80 degrees or warmer once in October
during the period of record beginning in 1939. This was on
October 9th, 2011 when a high of 82 was recorded.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy/MStrauser
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Foisy/MStrauser/TWD
Marine...Foisy/TWD
Fire Weather...
Climate...

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion