Devol, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

477
FXUS64 KOUN 270606
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
106 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Above-average temperatures and dry conditions will continue
   through next week.
- Low chance for a pattern chance by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A subtle shortwave in the flow aloft associated with a strong trough
axis in Canada will bring a weak front through western Kansas and
clip far northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, a surface ridge over North
Texas will bring warm southerly surface flow to Oklahoma. An upper
low over southern Cali will drive mid-level Pacific moisture into
the Southern Plains with increasing high clouds. Despite some high
clouds building in from the west this afternoon, expect unseasonably
warm temperatures for October in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The ridge will build east Sunday with light south-southeasterly
surface flow. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than
Saturday, but still remain above-average in the upper 80s to lower
90s. No precipitation chances Sunday will give way to pleasant
outdoor weather conditions. By Monday, the closed low over the
southwest CONUS will become absorbed into the main flow as the ridge
slides eastward and becomes centered over Illinois. The surface
ridge will still extend southeastward over Oklahoma with southeast
winds and slightly cooler (near-average) temperatures than the
weekend in the 80s. Lee troughing along the higher terrain to the
west may lead to diurnal convection along the Rockies, but any
precipitation chances are expected to remain west of Oklahoma with
very weak steering flow aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The pattern will remain fairly the same Tuesday through the end of
next week with the upper ridge becoming sandwiched between the next
incoming trough axis and a tropical system that is currently a
tropical disturbance near eastern Cuba. Thus, the western extent of
the surface high will continue to bring southeast surface flow into
much of Oklahoma, helping to keep temperatures near or slight above-
normal. Daily lee troughing to the west may bring some low-end
breezy winds to northwest and western Oklahoma through the week.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a more zonal flow by the
weekend, but the outlier GFS ensembles still want to bring a trough
into the Plains, which could bring a potential for a cooler airmass
and increased precipitation chances. If the ensemble guidance is
proven to be true, next weekend`s forecast will feature near-normal
temperatures and dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  63  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         90  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  89  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           89  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     90  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion