Dermott, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

941
FXUS64 KMAF 251125
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Increasing potential for heavy rain over westernmost higher
  terrain late this week into this weekend that may result in
  flash flooding.
- Fall-like and more seasonable high temperatures late this week
  into early next week before drier and warmer summer-like weather
  returns to the area by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
An upper-level shortwave trough continues to translate toward the
Mississippi Valley early this morning while ridging aloft extends
over the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Surface high
pressure continues to build into the Rocky Mountains and the
adjacent central and southern high plains early this morning
behind the cold front that has advanced into northern Mexico and
southern portions of Texas. Satellite imagery shows lingering mid
and high level cloud cover in place over southern portions of our
forecast area early this morning. Isolated rain showers will still
remain possible along the Presidio Valley and the southern Big
Bend region through the early morning hours as weak impulses
within northwesterly flow aloft move across this portion of our
area. We will keep rain chances very low (10-20 percent) over
these locations through early this morning. Dry weather conditions
are otherwise expected to remain prevalent across the the
forecast area today and tonight as upper-level ridging continues
to build in from the west. Temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal today as surface high pressure also
continues to settle across southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Highs will generally range in the lower to mid 80s over much of
the region, except for 70s in the mountains and in the 90s along
the Rio Grande. Lows tonight will continue to range in the 50s and
60s.
Shortwave ridging aloft will continue to build across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Friday, while an upper-
level low deepens over the Desert Southwest. Mostly sunny skies
and dry weather conditions will continue across most of our
forecast area underneath ridging aloft, but a zone of enhanced
deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values
around or slightly above 1" may spread into areas along and west
of our higher terrain areas by Friday afternoon. This increased
moisture and return southerly flow may aid in the development of a
few afternoon showers and thunderstorms over western portions of
our forecast area and we will maintain a 20-40 percent chance of
afternoon convection over these areas (highest chances in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains). High temperatures will trend
warmer with readings back to above normal in the mid 80s to lower
90s over much of our region underneath ridging aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
An upper level low over the SW CONUS dominates the upper pattern
this weekend. This feature directs moisture into the area, which
in combination with additional lift provided by near surface lee
troughing over SE NM into W TX and southeast upslope winds,
results in low to medium (25%-45%) probability of showers/storms
over western higher terrain into SE NM plains. Highest chances
(45%-60%) expected over westernmost parts of the forecast area
from western Eddy County into Guadalupes and Presidio Valley.
There remains a medium to high probability of rainfall at least
0.50" to 0.75" for westernmost higher terrain, with amounts
dropping off to the east. Only a few tenths of an inch expected in
foothills of western higher terrain and a few hundredths at most
over much of Lea County, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau into
Big Bend and points east, as the greatest lift and moisture will
continue to be located over far western portions of the forecast
area. Highs this weekend in the mid to upper 80s F, 70s F higher
elevations and 80s F in surrounding foothills, upper 80s to lower
90s F northeastern Permian Basin and Big Bend into Terrell County
are expected. Lows fall into the mid 50s F to mid 60s F despite
coverage of low clouds and rain chances due to dew point
temperatures remaining below 60 F and largely in the low to mid
50s F. Confidence has increased in messaging a flash flooding risk
for westernmost terrain, and heavy rain remains the most
significant impact this weekend. Highest rain chances and farthest
eastward extent of rain in grids look to be Saturday night and
Sunday afternoon. Despite this, if CAMs for Friday and early
Saturday farther to the west are any indication, this may still
end up being a high PoP-isolated high QPF event due to isolated
nature of heavy rainfall.
By Monday, the lee troughing will be developing farther to the
north of the area and weakening as the upper low itself over the
SW US dissipates. This results in building mid to upper ridging
and an accompanying increase in large scale sinking motion.
Shower/storm chances consequently decrease to low (25%-35%) for
westernmost higher terrain during the daytime and overnight, with
highest chances over Guadalupes and Davis Mountains due to heating
of elevated terrain and mesoscale induced circulations. However,
southwest flow aloft in the building ridging to the west of the
area will maintain high cloud cover and keep highs in the lower to
mid 80s F, 70s F higher elevations, and upper 80s F to lower 90s
F along Rio Grande Monday, while continued low boundary layer
moisture/dew point temperatures keep lows similar to previous
nights. Cloud cover begins to decrease Tuesday with increased
sinking motion despite continued upslope southeast flow, so rain
chances while lower will still not be zero and highs only a few
degrees warmer. The influence of the building ridge and zonal flow
increases by midweek. Summer- like highs in the upper 80s F to
lower 90s F, 80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F along
Rio Grande return to the area. Lows still manage to fall into 50s
F higher elevations and usual cooler spots of Lea County and
northwest Permian Basin, while falling into 60s F elsewhere, as
dew point temperatures stay well below 60 F. This warmth will not
be going anywhere, as no significant cold fronts are on the
horizon next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail across the region
through the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               83  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 84  61  90  64 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                   89  64  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            85  63  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           77  61  80  60 /   0   0  30  40
Hobbs                    82  58  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    80  54  82  57 /  10   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     84  61  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   83  61  89  65 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     84  60  90  64 /   0   0  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion