Custer, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

458
FXUS63 KLBF 051147
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms area again possible
  tonight into early Monday but no severe weather is expected.
- Much cooler temperatures settle into the area with highs
  falling to the 50s for all by Monday.
- Temperatures moderate for the latter half of the week with
  above normal highs expected each day Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Early this morning, scattered showers with a few thunderstorms were
continue to lift north and east across central Nebraska. This
activity was being driven by strong WAA overrunning the
southeastward advancing cool front. Expectation is as the front
continues to progress south and east, clearing the local area by
daybreak, that rain will come to an end and dry conditions resume
for much of the daytime Sunday. Winds will by steady out of the west-
northwest through the day and this will support CAA. The result will
be a large range of temperatures for the local area with highs in
the middle 50s near the Pine Ridge to middle 70s in our far south
and east.
Tonight/Monday...as high pressure settles over the Northern Rockies,
winds will veer to the east-northeast and this flow will support
modest lift off the higher terrain to the west. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms will form as a result during the overnight
hours. Any activity associated with the now departed frontal
boundary should remain well removed to the south and east.
Precipitation should persist into the daytime on Monday and it`s the
expansive cloud cover with rain that should keep temperatures well in
check. Daytime highs will only reach the middle to upper 50s, or
anywhere from 5 to 15F below normal for early October. Precipitation
chances will be fairly widespread though ensemble/deterministic
solutions paint vastly different ideas. Overall, the forecast leans
on NBM/EPS solutions which appear to be the more bullish outputs
available at this time. While QPF doesn`t appear to be overly
significant, a few locations could see a couple tenths of an inch
before activity departs later in the day Monday.
Monday night...high pressure will settle into western Nebraska
Monday night into Tuesday. This will coincide with clearing skies
and cooler temperatures off the surface. With light winds, will need
to watch for the potential for frost. Statistical guidance is
hinting at middle 30s for lows in our northwest and the current
forecast has some in place but not to the expanse advertised by the
MET/MAV/ECS solutions. NBM probabilities for < 36F lows favors the
Sandhills where a 50-70% bullseye exists. Will need to watch this
potential over the next few forecast cycles.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Longwave troughing over the Hudson Bay will begin to track east with
low-amplitude ridging building over the Inter-Mountain West. Ridge
axis appears set to arrive early Wednesday with positive height
anomalies remaining in place through the remainder of the forecast
period (Sunday). ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index shows minor positive
anomalies for both MaxT and MinT where ensemble mean temperatures
climb to the 70s and 50s for highs and lows respectively. The NBM
also shows median values for daytime highs in the upper 90s with
75th and 90th outputs in the middle to upper 80s. Pattern
recognition lends confidence to this thinking with +5C h85
temperature anomalies. All this to say that temperatures should
moderate through the week and a return to above normal and
potentially well-above normal values appears probable. This may
result in some renewed fire weather concerns, especially as we get
into the following weekend with ridge breakdown beginning with the
next disturbance tracking out of the Pacific Northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Precipitation has quickly departed to the east of the forecast
area this morning. Behind the progressing front, cold air
advection will promote expansive low-stratus development across
our northern zones to include the VTN terminal. This will lead
to prolonged MVFR and potentially periodic IFR conditions there.
Further south, skies should remain mostly clear at LBF until
mid-afternoon when some diurnal cumulus appears possible. Later
in the period, light rain will move northeast across southwest
Nebraska. This should bring -RA to LBF towards the end of the
forecast period. Confidence in this activity making it north to
VTN remains too low to include at this time.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion