Crystal, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

209
FXUS63 KFGF 010912
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
412 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued unseasonably warm temperatures thru end of the week.
- Chances for rain increase this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...Synopsis...
500 mb set up currently is an upper low off western British
Columbia coast and an upper ridge centered near Chicago with
ridge to north of Lake Superior. In between we have southerly
flow 500 and 300 mb. There is a weak surface trough with a
surface wind shift (sfc-850 mb trough) that is moving slowly
east and will move into the area late today and this evening.
Out ahead of it though is a 40 kt 850 mb jet which is over
central and eastern ND into Manitoba. This 850 mb jet will
remain in place thru the morning and then turn southwest and
weaken this aftn as surface-850 mb trough moves through. E ND in
area of 850 mb warm advection and a couple hundred j/kg elevated
CAPE. Weak impulses within the upper level flow are aiding in
the development of a small t-storm cluster moving north of
Valley City. This will likely continue moving north-northeast
thru daybreak. Other showers and perhaps weaker t-storms remain
possible other areas as well into the RRV and NW MN thru the
morning. This afternoon things settle down but late aftn/eve a
slight chance of precip exists over NW MN ahead of surface
trough as a ribbon of 500-1000 j/kg MU CAPE is present mainlyl
northern RRV, far NW MN into Manitoba.
Warm today, though once again areas of clouds present which in
some cases will keep temps from getting as warm as past days.
Still though for most highs today similar to Tuesday with low-
mid 80s.
Thursday will see a break as low level jet and mid level
moisture is east of the area, South winds are less too. 850 m b
temps actually are about the same as Tues and today so maybe 1-2
degrees higher temps on Thursday due to more sun.
Models have gone a slower route with Friday potential front and
rain chance nad actually has 850 mb temps over 20C into SE ND
and potential highs around 90 or upper 80s north to the border.
Some slight chances of showers or t-storms occur Friday late and
night north fcst area, but depending on front timing and
location this may be too far south yet.
Saturday will see the cold front slowly slide southeast still in
the mid-upper 80s in west central MN with 70s Devils Lake area.
For Saturday night into Sunday differences exist due to location
of upper level low, trough that will be over the central Rockies
and speed/location of where cold front will be. This tied to
strength of surface low, which GFS is a bit stronger in and
keeps more rain farther west initially Saturday. Either way
trends from ensembles suggest main axis of heavier rain
potential is a tad northwest of where it was earlier...more from
Bismarck area up thru northeast ND and SE Manitoba, far NW
Minnesota where NBM showing 20-30 pct chance of 1 inch or more.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Low level wind shear and gusts will be the main aviation impacts
for the TAF period. While gusts should be fairly limited
overnight, this will be replaced by low level wind shear between
30 and 40 knots at around 2000 ft. Showers may impact any TAF
site after 09z but confidence is low in the scope of
precipitation to add any PROB30 or prevailing group to the TAF.
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period with
gusts increasing after sunrise. Winds will eventually shift to
westerly by late afternoon early evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Perroux

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion