Crystal River Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

966
FXUS62 KTBW 070637
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains over the Gulf Region into the W Atlantic
keeping deep tropical moisture over most of the state through mid
week. The fluctuating but moderately tight pressure gradient
continues between surface high pressure in the Western Atlantic
to Mid Atlantic region and a stalled frontal boundary over the
Bahamas and S FL with occasionally gusty easterly winds. PWATs to
remain near 2 inches in SW and S FL areas to combine with daytime
heating and boundary interactions for increasing cloud coverage
and rain chances while drier air and lower PoPs should hold N of
Tampa through mid week.
Late in the week a shortwave trough deepens in the SE US pushing
a cold front over the Deep South FRI and FL Peninsula into the
weekend with a chance of rain ahead of and along the front then drier
and cooler high pressure is expected to build into the region
with a FL fall-like weather weekend expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Mainly SCT lingering low clouds but VFR conditions over the area
this morning on easterly winds. This afternoon another round of
mainly SHRA with a few storms develop and move over the FL
Peninsula especially in SW FL terminals with areas of MVFR
CIGs/vsbys possible at times, particularly during periods of
heavier precipitation.
&&
.MARINE...
The moderately tight pressure gradient continues between high
pressure in the Western Atlantic to Mid Atlantic region and a
stalled frontal boundary over the Bahamas and S FL with
occasionally gusty easterly winds and a choppy sea state. Small
craft should still exercise caution and headline in appropriate
zones through the week. A cold front is expected to move through
the region with breezy winds expected Friday into Saturday.
Showers and a few storms could also move from land to over the
waters daily.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions will continue over the area through the
week with occasionally gusty easterly flow and isolated to scattered
afternoon showers or a few storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  91  75 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  89  75  90  75 /  50  10  40  20
GIF  89  73  90  74 /  30   0  20  10
SRQ  89  73  90  74 /  40  10  20  10
BKV  89  68  90  70 /  20   0  20  10
SPG  87  76  88  75 /  30  10  20  10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion