Crystal Beach, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

524
FXUS61 KBTV 010535
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
135 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, continuing
the dry stretch. The cooler conditions will continue through mid
week, before an abrupt warming trend starts going into the weekend.
Areas of frost are increasingly likely Wednesday Night and Thursday
night, with the coldest conditions occurring Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 207 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure is building down into the
region out of Quebec, continuing the cold air advection.
Temperatures will drop quickly tonight and most areas should see
them fall into the thirties. The coldest hollows of the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom may see them fall into the upper twenties.
While temperatures will be favorable for frost formation in many
areas, continuing boundary layer flow should prevent it form
occurring at a widespread level. A classic fall day will develop
tomorrow with temperatures climbing into the mid fifties to lower
sixties under clear skies. Remaining boundary layer flow should
lighten tomorrow night, and the radiational cooling conditions will
become much more favorable. Therefore, widespread frost is looking
increasing likely with some freezes in the coldest parts of the
Adirondacks and Vermont. The frost freeze program will end tomorrow
in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, so no more frost/freeze
headlines will be issued in those locations after tonight. Wind
gusts will again be in the 10 to 20 mph range during the day, with
isolated parts in the Champlain Valley seeing higher gusts. Relative
humidities will drop into the mid thirties to the mid forties, with
lower values in the broad valleys. Therefore, fire weather is a
concern again tomorrow, even though values will not reach critical
thresholds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 207 PM EDT Tuesday...The center of the surface high will begin
to slide off to the east Thursday and Thursday night, initiating a
warming trend. While southerly flow will begin to develop Thursday
night, many protected hollows should remain decoupled, particularly
across eastern Vermont. Therefore patchy frost formation is again
expected in many areas, though not as widespread as Wednesday night.
Winds will be much lighter on Thursday so while relative humidities
will again drop into the 30s for most areas, fire weather concerns
will be lower.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 134 AM EDT Wednesday...Strong mid to upper level ridging
will build into the forecast area out of the southeastern US as
surface high pressure sits over the mid-Atlantic this weekend,
resulting in quiet, dry, mostly sunny, and warm weather with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s through the start of the next
work week, roughly 15 degrees above seasonable averages for
early October. Lows will also be relatively mild in the 40s to
mid 50s in spite of clear overnight due to the persistent warm
air mass. Patchy valley fog is also possible this weekend but
will be fighting persistent dry conditions.
The arrival of a cold front is expected early to mid week, though
deterministic models disagree on the exact timing of such a feature.
Highest chances of measurable precipitation are for Tuesday night as
models show the most overlap in this period, but the possibility of
precip exists, though lower, Monday night onward for portions of the
forecast area. There is also the potential for this cold front to
get pushed later and later in the week as high pressure stays locked
in place over us. When the cold front does arrive, it is likely to
bring cooler temperatures again with highs falling into the 60s and
lows into the 30s/40s midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
over the next 24 hours as skies remain clear. Models continue to
hint at clouds developing over higher terrain and drifting over
EFK this morning, but overall thinking is they will not be low
enough or organized enough to change flight rules there. Fog is
still not likely this morning due to very dry air and winds
remaining elevated just aloft. Conditions are calm or light and
variable at the surface with winds starting to increase around
08Z-11Z Wednesday out of the north 5-10 knots, increasing
further in the afternoon with gusts 10-25 knots out of the
north. Winds will diminish after 21Z-23Z Wednesday but remain
out of the north for much of the evening.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion