Crossnore, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

750
FXUS62 KGSP 281753
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front along the Carolina coast will drift west slightly
allowing for a return of showers and storms for Monday into
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a tropical system will drift northward across
the Bahamas, but is expected to slow down and start to drift east
away from the Florida coast late Tuesday. The tropical system is
expected to move further out over the Atlantic later in the week
as high pressure builds over our area from the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday: Lingering upper troughiness to go along
with a light low-level Atlantic Fetch is helping to keep enough
available moisture around, which should help kickoff a few showers
and thunderstorms over the mountains with orographic influence
this afternoon and evening, with not much breaking containment
east. Environment doesn`t support anything strong to severe with
any convection that does develop as instability remains very shallow
(250-750 J/kg of SBCAPE). Dry northeasterly flow continues to filter
in at the surface thanks to a surface high parked over the Great
Lakes region. Nice day overall with highs near-normal. Changes begin
to take place overnight as the aforementioned trough retrogrades
and moist easterly low-level flow in association with Tropical
Depression Nine works into the CWFA from the east. CAMS continue to
show the leading edge of the precipitation where the flow veers from
northeasterly at the surface and easterly around the 850mb-700mb
layer, creating a defined convergence zone. Precipitation is
expected to spread from east-to-west starting early morning
Monday near the I-77 corridor, then towards the mountains by
late morning/early afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of
instability as a wedge configuration settles in as continued
northeasterly flow sets the stage for it. Precipitation will
linger through a good chunk of the day. QPF amounts remain on
the lighter side with most locations receiving less than 0.50"
through the end of the forecast period. Expect afternoon highs on
Monday to drop a category or so compared to today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday: Moisture spreading in from the east
across a stalled front along the East Coast will be at its maximum
over the CWFA Monday night. This will be thanks to easterly flow
between T.D. Nine (which may be Imelda by that time) and high
pressure over the Great Lakes to southern New England. PoPs will
range from low-end chance in the far western zones to likely east
of I-77. From there the tropical system is forecast to slow down
and begin to turn toward the east. The latest guidance is in good
agreement on this, and the trend has been for this turn to be
further south of the Carolina Coast. Once that happens, flow will
turn more northeasterly atop the forecast area advecting drier
air and allowing PoPs to taper off. Scattered diurnal convection
looks to develop again Tuesday with the lingering moisture, but
then PoPs drop off Tuesday night. QPF doesn`t look heavy with this
precip, as forcing will be weak. Wednesday`s fcst has trended
drier, as high pressure builds in from the north. Mostly cloudy
skies expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, then turning partly
cloudy Wednesday. Breezy NE winds are expected both days across
the Piedmont, but well short of advisory criteria. Lows will be
5-10 deg above normal and highs a few deg below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: The medium range looks pretty quiet for
the region, as guidance is in good agreement on a 1030-1033 mb sfc
high drifting south out of Canada into the Northeast, shunting
any tropical moisture off the East Coast. PoPs remain below 20%
thru the end of the workweek and temps will be a few deg below
normal. Overall, a nice fall air mass should spread over the
area. Models are not in great agreement on depicting a cut off
low developing somewhere around the lower MS Valley late in the
week. The 00z ECMWF is more bullish on the low spreading moisture
back into the CWFA late Saturday thru Sunday. Upper ridging will
hold on along the East Coast, but moisture may start to increase
from the west, if the low does form. For now, PoPs increase to
slight chc to low-end chc, with temps returning to near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Northeasterly wind at 8-12 kts continues to
filter in with a few low-end gusts across the terminals, while KAVL
maintains a northwesterly component. High MVFR to low VFR stratocu
continues to remain overhead with SCT to BKN coverage. Placed a
MVFR mention in the TAFs either in the prevailing line or in a
TEMPO. Expectation is that the MVFR cig should lift fully later
this afternoon. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening, so placed a VCSH mention at
KAVL to reflect this. Better moisture moves in from the Atlantic
overnight with an increase in cloud cover, while winds increase as
well out of the northeast, but a slight toggle out of the east is
possible. Rain chances will increase first at KCLT before daybreak,
with associated restrictions. The precip chances will spill further
west over the rest of the terminals by mid-morning Monday. Placed
a TEMPO for best timing and associated restrictions at the end of
the forecast period. Went slightly more pessimistic compared to
guidance given the abundance of moisture, so placed an IFR mention
for cigs at or slightly before the onset of precip.
Outlook: Some flight restrictions can be expected during the early
part of this week as a prolonged easterly flow at low levels brings
moisture westward. Most likely this will be in the form of a low
cloud ceiling at MVFR or IFR levels. Beyond that, confidence in
precip is fairly low. Over the mtns, fog and low stratus are
possible each morning, mainly in the mountain valleys and for any
locations that received heavy rainfall the night prior.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CAC

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion