Cross Plains, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

011
FXUS64 KSJT 231813
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
113 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures this afternoon, with highs at or above 100
  degrees across the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley.
- Increased chance of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
  into Wednesday. A few of these storms could be strong to severe
  on this afternoon and evening.
- Heavy rainfall on Wednesday morning could result in localized
  flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Localized severe weather is possible tonight with minor flooding
possible across much of west central Texas tonight and Wednesday.
At the synoptic level, upper level west-northwest flow(a few
disturbances) and a warm sector will play a role in intense
convection developing this afternoon from Arkansas, Oklahoma down
into north Texas. The most significant severe weather will be
well to our northeast across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
near triple point low pressure system. Less intense for our area
along southward moving outflow boundary late this afternoon and
evening. However, moderate instability and good vertical wind
shear may lead to the first few storms being supercells(mainly Big
Country and Concho Valley) with all severe hazards in play(large
hail, damaging winds possibly a brief tornado or two). Make sure
you have a severe weather plan in play and have many ways to
receive warnings. Round 1 of thunderstorms will decrease by late
this evening then next round will develop due to mid to upper
level lift late tonight and Wednesday morning across the southern
2/3 of our area. Look for locally heavy rainfall/localized flash
flooding and a few marginal severe storms, mainly damaging winds.
Most of the activity will end Wednesday afternoon.
Otherwise, look for hot temperatures today then much cooler
weather for Wednesday. Highs today will be in the 90s to around
100. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s(cold
front south of our area) thanks to rainfall and low clouds
hanging around for much of the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The cold front that brought rain chances during the day on Wednesday
will have moved into south central Texas by Wednesday evening. Some
residual lift is expected from the last of a mid-level impulse
passing through the region.  As a result, a few lingering showers
could still occur overnight from the Concho Valley southward, but
rainfall amounts should be fairly light.
For Thursday and Friday, quieter weather is in store as surface high
pressure will fill in behind the front. A cooler airmass, to the
tune of 15-18 deg C at 850mb, should overspread the region both
days.  This should translate to high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s which is near normal for this time of year.  By late
Friday, the surface high will shift eastward and allow southerly
return flow to set up for this weekend and temperatures will return
to the low 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Models are in general
agreement of an upper-level low forming over southern California on
Saturday. However, models diverge significantly from run to run on
how to evolve this feature for early next week. The most recent runs
show this upper low becoming an open wave over the Desert Southwest
on Monday and having little to no effect on west central Texas.
Earlier runs show the low holding together and and perhaps bringing
some more rain chances to the region.  For now, the forecast for
Saturday through Monday was kept dry with temperatures near normal
as the region will be under an upper-level ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop late this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves into
the area. Will maintain PROB30s already in the TAFS for KSJT and
KSJT. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
to the west and northwest later tonight and move into our area in
the early morning hours. In addition to the storms, MVFR ceilings
are likely to develop in the morning as showers/storms move into
the area. Winds will become northerly behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  83  61  84 /  70  60  10   0
San Angelo  67  80  60  84 /  60  60  20  10
Junction    69  84  64  86 /  20  60  40  10
Brownwood   68  81  60  85 /  60  70  10   0
Sweetwater  66  82  60  83 /  70  60  10   0
Ozona       69  81  63  85 /  30  60  40  10
Brady       69  79  62  83 /  40  70  30  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...42

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion