Cross Creek, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS62 KMLB 020731
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
331 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/
  moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially
  along the coast. Localized flooding will be a concern through
  this weekend.
- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue
  into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf
  with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach
  erosion especially near times of high tide.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Today-Fri...High pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard today
will increase the NE-E wind flow and produce a breezy/gusty day.
This onshore flow will support a moistening of the atmos and result
in widespread showers and embedded storms. There is support aloft in
the form of a weak nearly stationary trough as well as a developing
coastal (inverted) low level trough. With MUCAPE near 1000 J/Kg and
PWATs 1.8"-2.0", ingredients are coming together to produce a risk
of excessive rainfall (with efficient rain rates) for portions of
the central FL Atlc coast. Coastal convergence as well as
back-building storms forming bands of heavy rain will affect
portions of the Space and Treasure coasts. Given the strength of
the onshore flow, some of these showers will push well inland and
affect Orlando metro. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" will occur with
locally 4"+ and the highest amounts should occur near the coast.
One or more Flood Advisories look likely over this period.
The tightening pressure gradient around the high pressure to the
north will produce northeast to east winds 15-25mph with higher
gusts esp along the coast. There will not be significant diurnal
range in temps esp along the coast due to very mild low temps
holding in the mid to upper 70s and max temps only in the low to mid
80s. A little larger diurnal range will occur over the interior.
Sat-Wed...Some model guidance show a weak low developing near the
NW Bahamas Fri night and track NW across south FL Sat. NHC has
started outlooking this area for low prob (10%) for tropical
development. If this occurs, even a weak (non tropical) low would
enhance low level convergence and heavy rain threat further across
east central FL. If more heavy rain is anticipated this weekend,
we may need a Flood Watch. By Sunday, the deepest moisture is
forecast to lift north and the pressure gradient eases though
remaining onshore. Rain chances should gradually decrease next
week though remaining at least scattered (50 percent). Would not
be surprised if we are able to lower PoPs further by mid week.
Temps look close to seasonable in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Tight NE to E pressure gradient will develop over the local Atlc
waters today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard.
Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to
continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several
days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and
swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue
through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of
the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be
slow to subside so an extension of the SCA appears likely to include
Sunday, at least for the offshore waters.
Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high
coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and
cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible
especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal
convergence.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Shower activity has moved onshore portions of east central Florida
early this morning, pushing west of I-95 in some spots. Mention
of VCSH will linger at the coastal terminals as rounds of onshore
moving showers persist through much of the TAF period. Heavier
showers will bring periods of VIS/CIG impacts to coastal
terminals, particularly from MLB southward. Have made an attempt
to narrow down the most reasonable timing of peak impacts with
TEMPOs, but AMDs will likely be needed throughout the day. VCSH
expands to most inland terminals by mid morning with SHRA impacts
currently forecast at MCO after 15Z. Breezy northeast winds will
gust to 20-25 kts late this morning and into the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  73  83  73 /  60  50  70  60
MCO  85  73  85  73 /  70  20  60  50
MLB  84  75  83  75 /  70  50  70  70
VRB  85  74  84  75 /  80  60  70  70
LEE  85  72  84  72 /  60  10  50  30
SFB  85  73  84  73 /  70  20  60  50
ORL  84  73  84  73 /  60  20  60  50
FPR  85  73  83  74 /  80  60  70  70
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion