Crosbyton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS64 KLUB 201110
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Isolated to scattered storms possible Saturday afternoon, with
   another round expected during the late evening and overnight
   period across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and eastern
   Rolling Plains.
- Much warmer Sunday and Monday, with record breaking heat
   possible.
- Daily chances for afternoon storms next week but confidence is
   highly uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Current water vapor imagery depicts an upper level trough spiraling
through the Central Plains while the upper level ridge remains
centered across portions of the Desert Southwest. A shortwave riding
down the eastern side of the ridge was also analyzed over eastern
New Mexico early this morning, where it is still forecast to enter
western portions of the FA by daybreak. Meanwhile at the surface,
a lee surface low will develop across southeastern portions of
CO, leading to southwest surface winds across the region. These
warm southwesterly winds combined with a subtle increase in
thickness values will keep temperatures on the warmer side
Saturday. However, scattered mid to upper level clouds may linger
throughout the day with any shower or thunderstorm from overnight
convection which could help limit temperatures from peaking into
the mid 90s, with temperatures forecast in the upper 80s to lower
90s area-wide. Main theme of the short term is the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon as
the H5 jet streak and associated shortwave moves directly overhead.
Lift, although rather weak, with this system combined with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s, and warm daytime
temperatures will provide enough instability for scattered
thunderstorms. Unfortunately coverage in storms does not look to
be widespread, with precipitation chances favoring areas off the
Caprock, especially the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, given
the more northern track of the shortwave. Precipitation will
likely linger through the overnight period as storms grow upscale
with the LLJ expected to kick in overnight. Although the overall
severe weather threat remains low, MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg
combined with bulk shear magnitudes around 30 to 35 knots may be
enough for some small hail and locally strong wind gusts to 55
mph. As we turn to the overnight hours, PWATs around 1.5",
combined with the LLJ could lead to areas of localized heavy
rainfall which could cause a few flooding concerns across low
lying/poor drainage areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The long term forecast remains on track early this morning with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms being the main theme. By
the start of the work week the FA will remain under the influence of
the upper level ridge. A shortwave tracking through the eastern
periphery of the upper level ridge Sunday morning will lead to
lingering showers and thunderstorms before we see drying conditions
through the afternoon. As the upper level ridge shifts slightly
eastward, we will see a slight increase in thickness and height
values which will allow temperatures to warm above seasonal normals
in the 90s area-wide, with a few areas off the Caprock reaching the
lower triple digits. As temperatures climb, we may even see areas
break record breaking temperatures at both KLBB and KCDS with
forecast highs just a few degrees shy from the current records on
Sunday. While highs on Monday are forecast at or above the
current records with the hottest temperatures of the week
expected. Additionally with the ridge overhead we will see mostly
dry conditions through the start of the week. By Tuesday, the
upper level pattern becomes tricky as the upper level ridge begins
to flatten while an upper level trough amplifies from the Central
Plains into the Upper Midwest region. As this trough begins to
dig through the Plains, the associated surface low will also shift
east, which will work to push a cold front into the region
Tuesday afternoon. Models are still a bit all over the place with
the evolution of this system, which will play a part in highs on
Tuesday, with current guidance showing a sharp gradient in
temperatures with highs in the mid 80s across our northwestern
counties and mid to upper 90s across our southeastern counties.
Lift provided from this front will lead to additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the region beginning Tuesday
afternoon. As the system dives southward, an H5 jet streak will
move into the northern Texas Panhandle Wednesday. Associated lift
from this jet streak will lead to chances for showers and
thunderstorms to continue through Thursday. Once again, confidence
remains low at this time given the run-to-run difference between
models.
Regardless, as the FROPA moves through the region Tuesday afternoon,
post frontal winds will shift out of the north resulting in CAA
to stream into the area with cooler daytime highs expected
Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Unfortunately,
an upper level ridge looks to move back overhead Friday which
will lead to the return of temperatures in the mid 80s to lower
90s as thickness values increase. Ensembles also hint at
additional chances for rainfall returning by next weekend as a
system translates through the Desert Southwest, although this
system remains too far out to get into specifics at this time.
Therefore will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR with chances for late day TS near CDS. At present the
nighttime shows the most potential for impacts, thus a PROB30 has
been added. Mostly light SSW winds could gust to around 20 knots
at CDS for a while this afternoon.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion