Crigler, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

673
FXUS64 KLZK 230512
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1212 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
-Strong to severe storms with multiple rounds posing a flash flood
 threat will be possible across central to northern Arkansas
 overnight through Monday morning.
-Areas of rainy conditions continuing through mid-week, with more
 widespread rains Tuesday into Wednesday.
-Cooling temperatures to at or below normal levels going into late
 this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Training showers and storms across portions of western Arkansas
(currently the Crawford, Sebastian, Franklin, Logan and Johnson
County area) will pose a flash flood threat as cells continue to
form along a boundary that is in a favorable area for development
due to a strengthening LLJ across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Stronger storms will additionally pose a strong to
severe wind and small hail threat. CAM`s continue to struggle with
storm evolution/maintenance going into the morning hours, but
general thinking is showers and storms will continue to push
eastward across Arkansas through daybreak. At that point, more
uncertainty in storm evolution exists heading into the afternoon
hours, where CAM`s generally show a downward trend in activity,
but cannot rule out activity extending into portions of central to
southern Arkansas later today. Temperatures are expected to
generally cool back towards normal levels (low to mid-80s for
central Arkansas) through early week.
Heading into the middle of the week, a mid-level disturbance
moving across the Central Plains will aid in strengthening low
pressure across that general region, with a cold front moving
across Arkansas Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring the next
round of widespread rains to the region and, depending on timing,
could result in the opportunity for strong to severe storms along
and ahead of the front. Post front, much cooler temperatures are
expected to settle into the region, where highs in the 70s and 80s
will continue through the end of the week.
Quieter weather is anticipated going through this weekend and into
next week as high pressure builds across the region, resulting in
slight warming temperatures back towards normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conds are expected at most TAF sites overnight. The exception
to this is at KHRO and KBPK where MVFR conds are anticipated
near/after 06z with the arrival of SHRA/TSRA. SHRA are possible as
far S as Cntrl sites overnight but should prevail VFR conds
through much of Tues. Additional SHRA/TSRA will push into NW AR
on Tues afternoon. This activity will move SE with time, impacting
Cntrl/Srn sites Tues evening. Winds on Tues should be S/SW at
around 10-15 kts. Winds could be variable and gusty around TSRA
activity ranging from 15-30kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  67  82  61 /  80  90  70  20
Camden AR         91  70  81  65 /  30  50  90  20
Harrison AR       76  64  75  59 /  90  90  50  20
Hot Springs AR    87  68  81  63 /  50  80  80  20
Little Rock   AR  87  71  82  66 /  50  80  80  20
Monticello AR     93  73  84  67 /  20  40  90  30
Mount Ida AR      87  68  81  62 /  50  90  70  20
Mountain Home AR  78  65  78  60 /  90  90  50  20
Newport AR        83  69  81  64 /  70  90  70  30
Pine Bluff AR     90  70  81  65 /  30  60  90  20
Russellville AR   86  69  82  64 /  70  90  60  20
Searcy AR         86  69  82  64 /  70  90  80  20
Stuttgart AR      87  71  81  66 /  50  70  80  30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ARZ004>007-014>016-
024-031>033-039-042>045-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-
203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...70

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion