Crestone, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

073
FXUS65 KPUB 041731
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated storms over much of southern Colorado
  through this evening, with a low end risk of strong to severe
  thunderstorms along and north of the Highway 50 corridor.
_ Strong southwest winds today, gusting to 40 to 50 mph at times,
  with a low to medium chance for isolated gusts to around 55
  mph.
- Cold temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across the San Luis Valley
  tonight, with a Freeze Warning now in effect.
- Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler by the time we get to
  Monday.
- Unsettled weather with more seasonable temperatures look to
  remain through much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Latest radar imagery showing continued scattered showers developing
over the mountains and mountain valleys this morning. Any lightning
strikes have been rather limited staying west of the CWA in the
higher instability. Short wave trough supporting this development
for much of overnight hours will lift to the north with coverage
lowering and shifting back more over the Continental Divide and
areas to the west through mid to late morning. By midday, will see
the strong upper level low approach the region, supporting
increasing ascent and flow to much of Colorado. Will see precip
development begin to spread east into the afternoon hours, with
coverage still remaining scattered. Instability will try and
increase during this time, with guidance showing CAPE ranging from
around 250 to 500 j/kg by the afternoon. While instability will be
weak, increasing ascent should help to offset this and allow at
least isolated storms to develop. Any storm should remain on the
weaker side during this time. Again, flow will be increasing during
this time and with anticipated strong mixing, southwest winds will
gust up to 40 to 50 mph over much of southern Colorado.
By mid to late afternoon, the low will continue east, again with
both the strengthening ascent and flow spreading east. Precip
development should move into the plains during this time, with
coverage of both showers and storms remaining the same. Similar CAPE
values are expected during this time, with the highest instability
remaining along and north of Highway 50. This should keep the severe
risk low today, however, still think there is a low end risk for
strong to severe development in these areas late this afternoon into
the evening. While instability will be low, slight increases in
moisture, increased ascent, and strong flow supporting higher shear
could help to offset this lower instability and support this risk.
At the very least, low level jet max will spread overhead during
this time and this flow could easily mix down to the surface with
any stronger storm. So, could easily see an isolated severe wind
risk, with wind gusts up to 60 mph, with any stronger storm. Precip
development will spread over the plains through mid evening, but
instability will quickly lower along with the risk of any stronger
storms.
With the departure of the system, westerly winds will usher in a
cooler and drier air mass. Skies clear while winds diminish tonight,
and will support colder temperatures especially over the San Luis
Valley. With this setup and with most guidance indicating temps
falling to the mid to upper 20s tonight, have upgraded the Freeze
Watch to a Freeze Warning for the Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Tomorrow..
Sunday will bring dry weather and very near seasonal temperatures
for much of the area, as the departing system pushes off to our
northeast and another wave takes shapes out west. We`ll be left in
dry southwesterly flow aloft, with mostly sunny skies and light
winds through much of the day. Highs look to climb into the 70s on
the plains, with a few low 80s possible on our far eastern plains,
and 60s over our mountain valleys. Models bring a second cold front
through sometime in the evening or overnight hours, bringing gusty
northeasterly winds, and possibly some showers and thunderstorms on
our far eastern plains. At this time, most guidance suggests that
storms will likely remain on the Kansas side of our border, though a
few stray showers and storms may be possible after 6pm on our far
eastern border. Some guidance also suggests that winds switch around
out of the east fairly quickly behind the front, which may to lead
to easterly upslope conditions and drizzle as early as Sunday
evening, especially over the Pikes Peak region and the I-25 corridor
through Pueblo and Fremont counties.
Sunday Night and Monday..
Overall, the timing of this reinforcing cold front will be the
determining factor in the amount of overnight cloudiness and
potential precipitation we see on our mountain adjacent plains. What
does seem certain is that temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
Sunday night than they are tonight across the area, leading to
another night of subfreezing temperatures in the San Luis Valley.
Gusty northeast to east winds also look to persist through much of
the night, beginning to taper off near sunrise on Monday morning.
Depending again on the timing of the front and the timing of any
clearing behind it, we may also see some very patchy frost along the
Palmer Divide briefly early Monday morning.
Behind that secondary front, our Monday looks to be significantly
cooler than where we`ve been the past several days. Continued
easterly and southeasterly winds on our plains may keep cloudiness
over our mountain adjacent plains through much of the day, though at
this time models are bit uncertain where the best chances for
precipitation may end up. The general consensus seems to bring
another wave past us to the north, keeping the best precip chances
north of us once again, but some models are also showing a shortwave
embedded in the southwesterly flow over our southeast plains riding
up over us by Monday evening, spreading showers across much of our
southeast plains. The interaction between the wave to our north and
the shortwave to our south will determine where the best chances end
up location-wise, but it seems evening and overnight timing are
favored most consistently. The than the uncertainty regarding precip
chances on Monday evening, we have much cooler than normal
temperatures to anticipate. Daytime highs look to top out in the mid
60s for much of the plains, with 50s for the Pikes Peak region and
70s for the San Luis Valley.
Tuesday Onwards..
We look to warm up slowly moving into the middle of the week, as
cloud cover remains overhead much of Tuesday, and flow aloft remains
pretty messy with a trough trying to form out west. This will keep
below normal temperatures over our area for Tuesday, along with
chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the high country
and portions of our plains for Tuesday as well. Models bring the
trough overhead in pieces throughout Wednesday, with zonal flow
setting up on Thursday as we seem to transition to a ridging pattern
heading into next weekend. For now, decent chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain over the high country for Wednesday, with more
isolated convection still looking possible for our mountains for
Thursday and Friday. Our temperatures look to remain near to
slightly warmer than normal for the Tuesday through Friday period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Gusty winds are expected through this afternoon for all three
TAF sites, with peak gusts mid afternoon around 35 knots. Quick
moving showers and thunderstorms may also impact the TAF sites this
afternoon. Strong winds would be the primary threat with any
thunderstorm, with gusts of 40-45 knots possible. Winds and
showers will lessen heading into the evening, with dry
conditions overnight with light winds less than 10 knots.
Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will increase through the
afternoon, with a quick clearing in clouds this evening as the
current storm system pushes east.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...SIMCOE

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion