Covington, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

741
FXUS62 KFFC 212332
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
732 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Key Messages:
- Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this evening into
    the early overnight across north Georgia. Severe weather is
    not expected.
- Warm again tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
    Scattered thunderstorms again in NW GA.
Forecast:
A few showers and storms are already getting started in and just to
the west of NW Georgia this afternoon. Outflows from these may be
able to keep the convective party going even after sunset. As
CAD/wedge continues to push into the area from the northeast, winds
are rotating a bit around the Appalachians to the southeast across
NW Georgia. Airmass here remains relatively moist with moisture
being drawn up ahead of a weak shortwave over the southern portions
of the Midwest. Some moisture convergence is noted within the
surface analysis, which is likely part of the impetus for convection
taking off in this location. The good news is no severe weather is
anticipated with these. Upper levels lapse rates are very poor
creating very skinny CAPE profiles within various sampled model
soundings. Shear is also lacking. Both 0-6 km and 0-8 km shear
within various guidance remains near or below 20 kts through the
evening. Any storms that do form will likely be short lived, with
continued development focused on outflows from collapsing updrafts
that also would be short lived.
Elsewhere, the aforementioned CAD continues to spread across the
area today. Drier, cooler air with the surface high over the NE
CONUS that is driving the CAD remains out of the CWA. The only real
influence is the easterly flow at the surface through the area and
some suppression of convection. Highs this afternoon are well
into the 80s and 90s. Lows overnight will cool into the mid to
upper 60s. Tomorrow is looking like a bit of a carbon copy of
today, with highs in the upper 80s to 90s, easterly to
southeasterly winds at the surface, and best chances of seeing a
storm in northern and northwestern Georgia. Bulk effective shear
is at least marginally better than today, but upper level lapse
rates remain poor. Won`t rule out a strong storm in NW GA right
now with a very low chance (but not zero) of seeing something
severe form. Lusk
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Key Messages:
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to rise for Thu-Fri
    as a system moves through the region.
- Above normal temperatures and humidity through Wednesday,
    returning to near normal for the rest of the week.
Forecast:
The long term period will start off with continued mostly dry
conditions as Georgia remains under weak zonal mid-level flow on
the edge of longwave troughing that covers most of the central
and eastern US. This pattern will stick around through Wednesday,
with rainfall chances generally limited far NW GA closer to the
moisture and ascent associated with the longwave trough. The more
noteworthy aspect of the forecast during this time will be the
heat, as low-level southerly winds bring in above normal
temperatures and elevated dewpoints. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index values in the low to
mid 90s in north GA and upper 90s in central GA.
A large shift in the pattern will start to take place late
Wednesday as a potent stacked low moves into the Midwest and TN
Valley. From Wednesday night through Thursday, significant
moisture advection downstream of the low will spread across
Georgia, with PWAT values rising from 1.5" to around 1.9-2.1".
This will support multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
across the area through at least Thursday night, before a cold
front associated with the low pushes through on Friday. While
confidence in the overall synoptic setup during this time is
medium to high, details on the mesoscale setup will need to be
monitored as we get closer to the event. Some strong storms will
be possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected at
this time. Total rainfall amounts for Thu/Fri look to generally
be in the 0.75-1.5" across the area, with the higher end of that
range in north GA. It is very likely that localized amounts will
be higher than this, with up to 2-3" possible in the hardest hit
areas. These are the details that we will have a better handle on
as we get closer to the event and see what the convective
allowing models are thinking. Regardless, this rainfall will be a
huge relief for the areas in drought status from the several week
period of little to no rainfall. After the cold front passes
through, a slightly drier and cooler airmass will push into the
region for Saturday.
Culver
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Outflow boundary is slowly pushing through the northern metro TAF
sites with -TSRA at RYY. Shouldn`t see any TSRA affect KATL
tonight. Should see skies clearing overnight before expecting a
rinse and repeat type of forecast tomorrow with E winds and a cu
field ~5kft.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
Hernandez
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         68  87  67  90 /  10  10   0   0
Blairsville     61  80  59  81 /  30  20  10  20
Cartersville    66  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10
Columbus        68  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     65  85  64  88 /  10  10   0  10
Macon           65  88  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            67  89  66  91 /  20  20  10  10
Peachtree City  65  87  63  90 /   0  10   0   0
Vidalia         66  89  67  91 /   0  20   0  10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Hernandez

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion