260 FXUS63 KPAH 032300 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 600 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry conditions expected through this weekend.
- Temperatures will remain above normal into early next week, followed by near to slightly below normal by Wednesday.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Tuesday night (30-40% chance). Light rainfall amounts up to a half inch are possible, especially on Tuesday.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
High pressure will linger across the area through the upcoming weekend before gradually drifting eastward into early next week. An upper-level ridge will remain in place through that time period, keeping temperatures above normal across the Quad State. That would put high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. For comparison, normal highs are in the upper 70s. Most locations will remain dry through the weekend.
As the high drifts eastward, moisture is expected to increase as subtle trough/low is progged to develop and drift northward from the Gulf. This will lead to the next chance of showers and thunderstorms for Monday through at least Tuesday. A cold front will sage southeast and meet up with the added moisture Monday night into Tuesday, which will end up being the best chance of seeing more widespread rainfall. Overall, shear and instability appear to be lacking with this system, so not anticipating severe weather at this time. Rainfall totals are forecast to be around a quarter to a half inch from Monday through Tuesday evening.
Beyond that time period, the upper flow will flatten, allowing temperatures too cool back closer to normal for Wednesday through Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s through that time period.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Early morning fog will remain possible at CGI/MVN. Otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the remaining TAF period.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...JGG
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion