Cosgrave, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

958
FXUS65 KLKN 260913 AAA
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Elko NV
213 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 348 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
* Chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
  this afternoon across central Nevada and southern Elko county.
* Another round of active weather expected to start late Saturday
  and early Sunday.
* Stronger weather system expected to move over northern and
  central Nevada Monday, lasting through Tuesday.
* Drier conditions expected to return by mid-week.
&&
.UPDATE... Issued at 213 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
No updates are needed for the current forecast as it remains on
track.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...
Issued at 348 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR dominant conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24
hour period, however MVFR or lower conditions possible from
passing storms. VCSH and VCTS near KTPH and KELY this afternoon
with VCSH over KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Increasing cloud coverage
ranging from FL080 to FL110 at all terminals. Light southerly
winds expected, however gusty erratic winds possible from passing
storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...
Issued at 348 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Active weather will continue this afternoon with some wetting
rains over all central fire zones with storms pushing into the
northern zones increasing chances for wetting rains this afternoon
to evening. 20-30% chance for thunderstorms over central Nevada
with strongest over zones 426, 427, and 425. A brief break in
weather Friday and Saturday, however some mid- level moisture will
keep thunderstorm chances up to 20% over the southern zones.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Active weather from an off-cut-low over
California will continue to bring rain and thunderstorm chances
across central Nevada and parts along I-80. 30-50% chance for
additional wetting rains expected to last through tonight.
Tomorrow, drier air moves over central Nevada, however mid-level
moisture will strengthen the chances of thunderstorms in the
afternoon across central Nevada (up to 20-25%). Northern Nevada is
expected to be dry. High temperatures range in the 70s to 80s.
Over the weekend, the low pressure system will shift east towards
Arizona and is expected to push moisture back into Nevada from a
southeasterly flow. 20-25% chance of showers for central Nevada on
Saturday, becoming more widespread Sunday across central and
northern Nevada, increasing up to 30-50% chance along with a
20-25% chance for thunderstorms, lasting through Monday morning. A
gradual warming for temperatures, with highs in the 80s.
Monday morning, models are in better agreement of another low
pressure system over the northwest Pacific and push across the
western U.S. Lingering showers from the weekend will be absorbed
from the next front with an even greater chance (50-70%) of
isolated showers, lasting until Tuesday afternoon when drier air
begins to move in. The weather front will bring in cooler air,
dropping high temperatures in the 60s to 70s.
Wednesday, northwesterly flow returns over the silver state,
bringing in drier air, with cooler temperatures in the 60s.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is moderate to high
for continuing weather activity this afternoon. Confidence is
moderate to high on the next storm system Sunday. Increasing
confidence of a stronger storm system Monday from the northwest
Pacific Coast. No changes were made to the grids at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR dominant conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24
hour period, however MVFR or lower conditions possible from
passing storms over KTPH, KWMC, and KELY. VCSH and VCTS near KTPH
and KELY this afternoon with VCSH over KWMC. VCSH over KBAM
expected late afternoon while KEKO and KENV expected to remain
VFR. Increasing cloud coverage ranging from FL080 to FL110 at all
terminals. Light southerly winds expected, however gusty erratic
winds possible from passing storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather will continue this afternoon with some wetting
rains over all central fire zones with chances pushing into zones
437 and 424. Zones 438, 469 and 470 expected to remain dry except
for the southern portions of the zones. 20-30% chance for
thunderstorms over central Nevada with strongest over zones 426,
427, and 425. A brief break in weather Friday and Saturday,
however some mid-level moisture will keep thunderstorm chances up
to 20% over the southern zones.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...84

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion