Cortez, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

482
FXUS62 KTBW 300032
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
832 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The low-topped scattered showers activity that developed earlier
has mostly tapered off at this time with latest KTBW radar imagery
showing just a few isolated light echoes drifting southward at
this time. The precipitation activity will generally continue
overnight along the Atlantic Coast of Florida as far outer bands
of showers associated with Tropical Storm Imelda move ashore but
this activity should not spread far enough inland to bring any
activity across the TBW CWA tonight. Thus, it will generally be a
dry evening in west central and southwest Florida other than
perhaps some precipitation activity occurring across the Gulf
waters, though a low stratus deck will likely increase in coverage
overnight from north to south as abundant low level moisture
remains trapped beneath a low level inversion. Some minor
adjustments were made to PoPs this evening based on recent radar
trends and hi-res guidance but otherwise no other changes planned
at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda continues to spin over the Bahamas this
afternoon. NHC expects the storm to make a sharp eastward turn
sometime between today and tomorrow. This will allow more dry air to
filter into the area as it wraps around the backside of Imelda. This
morning`s sounding already showing a bit of dry air in the mid and
upper levels. The dry air will limit rain chances through Wednesday.
However, a few isolated to scattered showers could work their way
over from the NE heading SW, though likely will not make it all the
way to the coast.
Thursday into Friday an upper level trough coupled with a surface
boundary will push into the area bringing some extra moisture. Rain
chances with increases as well as the east to northeast winds as the
pressure gradient tightens up. This pattern hangs around through
the weekend as the boundary lingers over FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the evening but
abundant low level moisture will yield low stratus development
overnight with the potential of MVFR CIGs at some terminals,
particularly north of SWFL sites. Any low clouds that develop
overnight will slowly lift Tuesday morning with VFR conditions
then generally prevailing through the remainder of the period,
though some isolated/scattered shower activity may develop by late
afternoon and evening but forecast confidence was too low to
include in the TAF issuance at this time. Otherwise, winds will
generally be out of a northerly direction throughout the period
with gusts possibly reaching around 15-20 kts at times on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
North to northeast winds expected through the remainder of the week
as Tropical Storm Imelda moves east, away from the FLorida coast and
a frontal boundary drops down over the state. Winds stay around 10
to 15kts the next couple of days, likely increasing to advisory
levels by Thursday afternoon. Winds begin to subside over the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A bit of dry air will filter into the area as Tropical Storm Imelda
turns east, away from Florida between today and tomorrow. However,
RH values will remain above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  20
FMY  75  90  74  91 /  10  20  20  30
GIF  74  90  73  90 /  10  30  10  20
SRQ  75  89  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
BKV  70  88  68  89 /  10  20  10  10
SPG  76  87  75  88 /  10  10  20  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion