Copan, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

047
FXUS64 KTSA 241120
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Heavy rainfall potential will continue through early Wednesday
morning across western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma, with a
threat for localized flooding.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon with passage
of upper level trough. Severe weather not expected.
- Temperatures drop below normal mid week, rising back above normal
by early next week with dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Potential for severe weather has largely ended this evening, though
clusters of elevated convection will continue through tonight from
northwest AR into southeast OK ahead of Pacific cold front. The
threat of additional pockets of heavy rainfall continues along and
ahead of this boundary through much of tonight however with a
corridor of 2 inch plus Pwat extending from central AR to south
central OK. Some areal flooding continues in parts of northwest AR
where 3 to 5 inches of rainfall occurred earlier today, so any
additional rain at all will exacerbate these conditions. Was able
to cancel the Flood Watch for a good portion of eastern OK, with
remaining watch still in effect until 12z Wednesday.
Some showers will continue early Wednesday across southeast OK
within the plume of deep moisture that will continue to be
suppressed south with time. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated Wed afternoon into the evening
generally north of I-40, as pocket of colder temps aloft associated
with the upper trough moves across the area. Otherwise a much more
comfortable afternoon can be expected with highs mostly in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Once we move past Wednesday, the upper trough will move off to the
east and ridging aloft sets up for the remainder of the week and
likely through the weekend. Temperatures will begin to climb back up
above normal again by the weekend, but at least humidity will be
lower.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Widespread MVFR to IFR are ongoing with periodic LIFR conditions
across far NW AR. This pattern is likely to remain in place
through mid to late morning with a gradual improvement into MVFR
to low VFR ceilings into the afternoon. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon with higher
chances across far NE OK and far NW AR with brief terminal impacts
possible. Uncertainty is high for ceilings trends into the evening
and overnight hours. Forecast will show improving conditions
across OK sites but maintain lower ceilings and redevelopment of
patchy fog across western AR sites. Potential does exist for more
widespread and/or dense fog late tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  80  59 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   80  63  81  60 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   80  61  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   75  56  80  54 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   74  58  77  53 /  40  20  10   0
BYV   73  59  75  54 /  60  20  10   0
MKO   77  61  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   74  58  78  55 /  60  20   0   0
F10   79  59  79  55 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   80  62  79  59 /  30  10   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion