Comstock, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS64 KMAF 251824
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
124 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Increasing potential for heavy rain over the westernmost higher
  terrain this weekend which may result in flash flooding.
- A warmer and drier pattern sets up by early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The cold front that brought these more Fall-like temperatures has
departed from our area and has made its way south into Mexico.
Behind it, post-frontal high pressure persists, with its center
currently sitting in the Rocky Mountains. Another day with
seasonable temperatures is forecast for West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico today. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s are forecast areawide (90s
along the Rio Grande). Lows in the 50s and low 60s can generally be
expected as well. Drier air in the wake of the front means rain
chances are low (< 10%) today.
Temperatures warm again tomorrow. Highs in the upper 80s and low 90s
return as weak ridging sets up over our area. Meanwhile, yet another
system (currently over California) will set up roughly over Arizona
and get cut off from the main flow. As a result of this, along with
increasing moisture, rain chances increase in our westernmost
counties and in the higher terrain (20-50%). Rain chances will
continue for the western half of our area through the weekend. More
on this in the Long Term Discussion...
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As mentioned in the Short Term Discussion, a cutoff upper-level low,
coupled with increasing moisture and upslope flow, yields increasing
rain chances through the weekend. The best opportunity (40-60%)
still looks to be Saturday and Sunday, specifically for Southeast
New Mexico (particularly Eddy County) down into the Davis Mountains
and Presidio Valley. Meanwhile, less lift and drier air means that
much of the eastern half of our area (ie the Permian Basin of West
Texas and the Lower Trans-Pecos) will miss out on
showers/thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. However,
given the potential for multiple days of showers/thunderstorms in
generally the same locations, instances of flash flooding would be
our main concern this weekend. High temperatures will tend to be 2-5
degrees above normal (which is 84-85 degrees at KMAF), particularly
for locations that remain dry. Further west, temperatures are
expected to be a bit cooler due to the increased cloud cover and
rain.
By Sunday, the cutoff low begins to get absorbed back into the upper-
level flow and by Monday it ejects off to the northeast. Other than
some lingering low (10-30%) rain chances Monday (mainly in the
higher terrain), a drying trend commences by next week. Rain chances
are currently forecast to go to nil Tuesday through the end of the
period. Meanwhile, temperatures start to trend back up again, with
upper 80s and low 90s once again forecast by the beginning of
October.
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Winds shift to the
south and southeast this evening. Occasional gusts, but sustained
winds remain 10kts or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  90  64  87 /   0  10  20  30
Dryden                   63  92  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            62  90  66  89 /   0  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           60  80  60  76 /   0  30  30  50
Hobbs                    57  87  62  86 /   0  10   0  20
Marfa                    54  82  58  81 /   0  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     61  90  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   61  88  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     60  90  64  89 /   0  10  10  20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion