Commerce Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

184
FXUS63 KPAH 070831
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible
  today, mainly across west Kentucky. Locally greater totals
  are possible over the Pennyrile, where localized flooding may
  occur.
- Dry weather with more seasonal temperatures will arrive for
  the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Radar shows widespread rainfall across most of the Quad State
area this morning with generally light to moderate rainfall
rates being observed. Lightning has been very minimal this
morning. Temperatures are running in the upper 60s to around 70.
A weakening low pressure center over SEMO/western KY this
morning is progged to drift gradually east and northeastward
through the day. Plenty of tropical moisture lifting north ahead
of this feature has allowed dewpoints to push up into the upper
60s to around 70. The combination of forcing with the low and
the added moisture continues to lead to widespread rain across
the area. This will also be ahead of a cold front that stretches
from Quebec south and southwest to central Texas this morning.
Aloft, broad troughing es expected to dig down across the
central CONUS through Wednesday.
The main concern with the low and frontal boundaries passing through
the area today will be the potential for heavy rainfall and
localized flooding. Precipitable water values are expected to be on
the order of 1.5 to 2 inches, which is around 200 percent of normal
for this time of year. That sets the stage for up to or possibly
just over a 2 inches of rainfall, mainly focused over western KY and
especially the Pennyrile. It has been very dry recently, so that
should help to limit overall flooding potential. Instability values
are fairly low this morning; however, they do increase later this
afternoon (after 18Z) to around 800-1000 J/kg. Shear is expected to
only be around 15kts or so, which should limit severe potential, but
there will be enough instability ahead of the cold front to produce
thunderstorms.
After those systems slide off to the east of the area, expected
strong/dry Canadian high pressure to become center over the Great
Lakes while sprawling across the Quad State region. Mid to upper-
level flow will flatten or become slightly ridged across the area
for Wednesday through Friday. This will allow temperatures to cool
to near seasonal levels with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the
40s. Winds may drop off enough late Thursday night to produce some
mid to upper 30s across mainly southern IL into southwest IN. It
should be easy to cool the temperatures down overnight as PWAT
values drop to about 25 percent of normal, which indicates a very
dry airmass. It wouldn`t be overly surprising if some patchy frost
develops in the typical cold spots.
The next shift in the weather pattern is showing up for next weekend
as guidance hints at a surface low develop over the Rockies before
shifting out into the Plains late in the weekend. This will lead to
increasing southerly flow across the Quad State and temperatures
warming back toward the 80s. The chance for precipitation may hold
off until early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Showers are continuing to move through the area but there should
be a brief lull in activity over the next few hours until around
midnight. Showers will then ramp back up from the south and move
northeast through the area overnight and tomorrow morning.
Confidence in thunder is too low to mention currently. Cigs
remain low with some places bouncing between IFR and MVFR. Cigs
will begin to lift tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front.
Winds will be calm, to light and variable overnight but will
switch around to be out of the north tomorrow at 5-10 kts
behind the cold front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...HICKFORD

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion