Collyer, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

716
FXUS63 KDDC 031000
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...Updated Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Sunday afternoon.
- Unseasonably hot Friday with strong south winds.
- Even stronger south winds expected Saturday, with gusts
  near 45 mph.
- Cold front arrives Sunday night, with scattered thunderstorms
  favoring the northeast counties.
- Much cooler temperatures expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A strong midlevel high pressure ridge was firmly in place at
midnight, with 500 mb heights of 590-592 dm from Kansas into
West Texas. With the associated strong subsidence, infrared
satellite imagery depicted a perfectly clear sky over SW KS.
The ridge axis will be nudged eastward and weaken slightly
Friday, in response to a strong 566 dm closed midlevel cyclone
advancing through Nevada. The resulting SWly midlevel flow over
Colorado will yield lee cyclogenesis of about 1003 mb near
Denver by 7 pm. South winds will respond after 10 am, with a
traditionally windy Kansas day on tap, averaging 20-30 mph. With
the improved mixing and a 1-2C net warming at 850 mb, all
locations will be within a few degrees of 90 this afternoon.
The forecast high at DDC is 90, which is 13 degrees above normal
for early October, but much less than the record highs which
are in the upper 90s.
Even stronger south winds are expected Saturday, as the Great
Basin cyclone evolves into a strong negatively tilted
progressive shortwave, and pivots through the central/northern
Rockies. Stronger lee cyclogenesis will result, with 00z NAM
forecasting a 993 mb surface cyclone east of Denver, and about a
10 mb mslp gradient across SW KS. Saturday will be the windiest
day SW KS has seen in quite some time, with 850 mb winds of
35-40 kts supporting wind gusts of 40-45 mph in the expected
warm, well mixed environment. Significantly lower heights will
overspread SW KS Saturday, ahead of the Rockies trough, which
will help reduce afternoon temperatures several degrees, in the
upper 80s.
The Rockies trough ejects into the northern plains Sunday, with
the associated trailing cold front expected to enter NW KS
Sunday afternoon. Models are in good agreement the front will be
across the northern zones peak heating Sunday, and convergence
will encourage scattered thunderstorms, favoring the northeast
zones, Sunday night. Many model solutions favor their QPF
fields northeast of DDC, so NBM pops have increased into the
chance and likely categories across the northeast. Some storms
may be strong to marginally severe along the frontal boundary
Sunday evening, with some global model solutions suggesting MCS
development across central Kansas.
Models allow the quasi-stationary frontal boundary to meander
across the SW KS region through Monday. A significant
temperature gradient is probable Monday afternoon, ranging from
60s northwest, to 80s southeast. Additional thunderstorms appear
probable Monday night and early Tuesday, with ECMWF/EPS
solutions favoring another MCS near central Kansas. NBM pops are
already in the likely category for the northeast zones for this
expectation.
Pending how efficiently the frontal boundary sags south, much
cooler temperatures are expected next week. GFS solutions are
quite cool, with strong cool surface high pressure encompassing
Kansas through Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to
be reduced to the 60s Wednesday, as suggested by NBM/MEX
guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period. After 15z Fri,
south winds will increase at all airports, gusting 30-32 kts
through the afternoon. After sunset/00z Sat, S/SE winds will
remain elevated to strong in response to a low level jet.
Included low level wind shear after 03-06z Sat. Even stronger
south winds are expected after 15z Sat.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Strong south winds are expected both Friday and Saturday.
South winds will gust 35-40 mph Friday afternoon and evening,
with stronger south winds gusting 40-45 mph Saturday afternoon
and evening. Minimum relative humidity will fall to near 20%
near Colorado both afternoons, where outdoor burning is
discouraged.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion