Clio, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

088
FXUS62 KILM 200123
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
923 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue into the weekend as high
pressure builds in. Near to slightly above normal temperatures
from Sunday into next week with low rain chances each day
associated with a coastal trough.
&&
.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this
update.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue as high pressure extends down from
the north with a light northerly flow becoming calm into
tonight. In saying that, once again this afternoon, cu mainly
along the sea breeze built enough to support a shower or two.
Expect this again on Sat.
Similar to last night, lingering richer dewpoint air from the
sea breeze should lead to patchy to areas of fog across the
area, especially right at the pre-dawn hours. May see some low
clouds as fog lifts, but overall heading into anther mostly
sunny day on Saturday.
The center of the high to the distant north shifts eastward
through Sat while continuing to extend down into the Coastal
Carolinas. The trough offshore becomes more pronounced through
Sat and a couple of models are showing a weak low developing.
This will tighten the gradient later on Sat leading to an
slight increase in NE flow by Sat aftn with winds up to 10 mph
or so.
Temps will be in 60s once again tonight with above normal highs
tomorrow reaching into the 80s and near 90 near and west of
the I-95 coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level pattern will feature subtle ridging building in
slightly through early Monday then turning a bit to the
southwest late in the period. At the surface high pressure will
remain off to the northeast and any shower activity should
remain well offshore. Temperatures will remain very steady state
with highs in the lower to mostly middle 80s and lows in the
middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Indications of a pattern change late next week remain in place
as the mid level pattern will transition from a benign weak
westerly flow to southwest. This is a result of somewhat deep
and cutoff mid level low pressure developing in the Mississippi
Valley. Slight to low chance pops are in the forecast Wednesday
and Thursday increasing slightly to lower chance area wide by
Friday. Confidence is low however as these highly amplified
patterns are slow to shift. High temperatures may approach the
upper 80s in places early on shifting down in time with the
increased moisture. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period with weak sfc high
pressure, light winds, and only a few high clouds over the
area. This will set the stage for another night of deteriorating
aviation conditions. Moderate to high confidence in MVFR/IFR,
mainly in the form of fog, with lower confidence for LIFR which
should be more spotty. As winds kick up around dawn the fog will
lift, followed by another day of dry weather with a mostly
sunny sky and NE winds.
Extended Outlook...Moderate potential for low cigs/vsbys Sunday
and Monday mornings. Some potential for isolated showers
returns the middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Very light northerly winds will allow the
sea/land breeze to dominate once again with onshore to SSE flow
into early evening becoming very light offshore overnight. Into
Sat, the light NE flow will pick up slightly as gradient
tightens slightly between high pressure extending down from the
north and trough becoming more pronounced offshore. A few models
show a weak low developing offshore. Winds will pick up out of
the NE through Sat aftn, but moreso later in the day. Seas 2 ft
or less will increase a foot or so by later Sat.
Saturday night through Tuesday...NE winds will be in place
Sunday into early Monday and remain somewhat elevated in a range
of 15-20 knots. With significant seas of 3-5 feet there is a
chance for a small craft advisory as well. The gradient will
weaken Monday and Tuesday with winds continuing from the
northeast. By midweek or so an onshore flow develops than shifts
to southwest late in the period due to an approaching system.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...SHK/RGZ

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion