Cleveland, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS64 KHGX 220502
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms continue today
  and tomorrow with the highest rain chances closer to the coast.
- Higher chance of showers/storms on Wednesday as a frontal
  boundary pushes through the region. Locally heavier
  thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
- Drier and less hot temperatures expected during the second half
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For Monday and Tuesday, we opted for a good old fashion
persistence forecast. That means a continuation of daily isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms along with humid and
slightly hotter than normal conditions. The best chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be at the coast. The one caveat is that
ridging looks a tad stronger for Monday which could cause PoPs to
underperform. But let`s go with persistence for now. The
mid/upper pattern undergoes a shift by the middle of the week, as
a deep layer trough digs southward over the Midwest and
Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure
is expected to form over the south-central plains on Wednesday,
before accelerating northeastward and moving into the Great Lakes
by Thursday. The low`s associated cold front should push southward
into SE Texas on Wednesday, enhancing LL convergence, while the
aforementioned trough enhances larger scale lift. Most guidance
suggest a PWAT surge as the steepening gradient support increasing
southerly LL flow from the Gulf. This set up would be favorable
for more widespread and potentially locally heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity on Wednesday. Depending on the speed of the
front, this activity could clear out by Thursday or linger into
Thursday. The coast stands the best chance of seeing
showers/storms linger into Thursday.
Conditions behind the front are expected to become less hot and
humid. But there`s some uncertainty regarding how much cooler air
is advected into our region. The ECMWF has generally been stronger
with advection, dropping much of the region into the mid/upper 80s
for highs with lows well down into the 60s. Meanwhile, the GFS has
kept highs in the 90s. BUT, the current overnight run (still
coming in) of the GFS actually trended more in the ECMWFs
direction. So the current temperature blend in our grids leans
more in the ECMWF`s direction. I wouldn`t call it fall like. But
our forecast does features lower humidity, mild nights, and
pleasantly warm (relatively speaking) afternoon during the second
half of the week.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Still have a cluster of shra in the western metro area that may
eventually clip IAH if it holds together long enough so will
maintain the mention of VCSH/PROB30 there in the new TAF set for
an hour or so. But overall, we should see remaining activity on
radar continue to mostly dissipate this evening with the loss of
heating. VFR conditions should prevail for most, if not all of
the night. Fcst is one of mostly persistence. That being some
isolated to scattered precip redevelopment offshore and near the
coast toward morning followed by a eventual transition inland
during the afternoon with daytime heating and seabreeze/baybreeze.
47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Light to moderate southeasterly winds and 2 to 4 foot seas will
prevail going into midweek. There will be a daily risk of
scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Winds
become southwesterly to westerly on Wednesday as a frontal
boundary approaches. Showers/storms, some locally heavy, are
expected to accompany the frontal boundary as it pushes offshore.
Drier air filters into the region behind the front. Gusty north to
northwest winds are expected on Thursday, possible warranted
caution flags.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  73  93  74 /  20   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)  91  76  91  77 /  50  10  40   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  80  88  81 /  60  30  50  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion