Clarkdale, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

880
FXUS62 KFFC 241849
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms each day
   through the weekend. Strong gusty winds are possible tomorrow
   afternoon with the thunderstorms, and SPC has a Marginal Risk
   (1/5) in place over GA for tomorrow.
- Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the
   cold front, starting tomorrow.
- High uncertainty in forecast beyond this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A frontal boundary is approaching Georgia, and will bring with it
instability and moisture. Periods of widespread rain are expected
tonight through the end of the short term period. Rainfall totals
are going to be around 1-1.5 inches overall. However, isolated
higher amounts are likely, particularly over north Georgia, with up
to around 3-4 inches being possible.
This afternoon, shower activity will continue, remaining generally
isolated. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, the risk
is low through tonight.
Overnight tonight, additional moisture moves in. Showers and periods
of rain are likely over northern and western Georgia. Another surge
in moisture, combined with the proximity of the frontal boundary and
daytime heating, will result in another pulse in shower activity
during the afternoon tomorrow. CAPE values are likely to be on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
likely after midday tomorrow into the evening. Some of these
thunderstorms are likely to produce strong, gusty winds, and SPC has
a Marginal Risk (1/5) for tomorrow.
Temperatures will cool off with the arrival of the cold front, which
will bring the high temperature tomorrow back down to near-normal
levels, in the low 70s to low 90s across northern and central
Georgia.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The longterm outlook will be heavily dependent on conditions in the
Atlantic over the coming days. A relatively low latitude upper level
blocking pattern over the western Atlantic is causing chaos in up
stream flow development. So, lets start by addressing the elephant
in the room. The NHC has two 80% regions of potential tropical
development in the western Atlantic over the next 7 days. Models,
including the ECMWF and its ensemble, GEFS, and HAFS have continued
to try developing at least 1 tropical system in the area. At the
same time, the upper level trough which is bringing our short term
PoPs, begins to stall as it runs into the upper level block. Now,
the good news is that no models at this time have direct impacts
from any tropical system. However, the interplay between 2
(potentially 3) systems is exceptionally chaotic and adds extreme
uncertainty to the forecast beyond the weekend. Ensemble spread
values for wind and height at 250mb and 500mb respectively show
anomalously large values within 120hrs. This discussion is not so
much to raise awareness of the tropical systems themselves, as
impacts to the CWA are unlikely, but more to emphasis that any
forecast beyond Sunday will likely see significant
changes/uncertainty over the coming days. Generally, with the
stalling trough pattern and PWATs likely over 1" we can expect to
see some showers and thunderstorms in the cwa most days from Sunday
onward. Otherwise temperatures should be cooler than they have been
with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Isolated showers will continue across portions of N GA this
afternoon, including around ATL & satellites. An isolated TS or two
cannot be ruled out, but is unlikely. Beyond the afternoon, the
trend is towards lowering ceilings and increasingly likely SHRA
activity, particularly aft 02Z. A lull in SHRA activity betw 10Z
&14Z is followed by another round of pcpn. TS are expected tomorrow,
with timing likely aft around 17/18Z. MVFR conditions are likely
starting around 02Z, and IFR is possible near the end of the pd.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on trend towards MVFR, and SHRA activity.
Confidence low to medium on timing.
CRS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  67  79 /  20  70  40  40
Atlanta         72  81  68  80 /  30  80  40  40
Blairsville     65  75  62  76 /  70  80  40  50
Cartersville    69  81  66  81 /  60  80  30  40
Columbus        72  84  69  82 /  20  80  50  50
Gainesville     70  80  67  79 /  40  70  40  40
Macon           71  88  69  81 /   0  60  50  60
Rome            71  83  67  83 /  70  70  30  40
Peachtree City  69  81  67  80 /  30  80  40  40
Vidalia         71  94  70  86 /   0  30  40  70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...CRS

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion