707 FXUS63 KILX 250635 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 135 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A stretch of dry weather kicks off today and continues through much of next week. This may exacerbate ongoing drought conditions.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A blocky upper level pattern is expected to redevelop across the CONUS through the weekend resulting in another prolonged period of dry weather and a return of above normal temperatures.
This morning, an upper low remains parked over the Great Lakes with upper level troughing extending southwest across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, low pressure is over the Ohio Valley with northwest flow in place in its wake across central Illinois. The dry air mass in place over central Illinois coupled with a strong inversion atop the mixed layer will keep the area dry today. Temps will top out in the mid to upper 70s today under mostly sunny skies, then will dip into the low to mid 50s tonight. A few spots may even dip into the 40s under favorable radiational cooling setup as surface ridge axis slowly sags south across central Illinois.
Meanwhile, a strong shortwave "kicker" will dig across Hudson Bay tonight into Friday and help to push the upper low further east. A second wave taking a similar path over the weekend will be followed by a strong and amplifying upper ridge. The ridge will settle along the entirety of the Mississippi Valley late this weekend and linger through much of the upcoming week as an Omega block pattern redevelops. Temps will warm locally with highs back into the mid and, at times, upper 80s Sunday through the first half of the upcoming week. The ridge will also suppress convective chances across the region resulting in another prolonged period of dry weather that could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions.
Deubelbeiss
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.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
High pressure will inch towards the region through the period resulting in diminishing north to northwest winds through the day Thursday. Will have to monitor for some patchy MVFR ceilings over the region tonight but VFR conditions will prevail through the day Thursday.
Deubelbeiss
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion