Circleville, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

025
FXUS63 KTOP 300812
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Staying warm through the weekend, with highs still in the 80s.
- Low rain chances (~20%) return late weekend into early next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Upper ridging centered over the Midwest remains the key feature this
morning, keeping warm and dry conditions in place across the region.
We are seeing a few more clouds this morning though, associated with
mid-level lift ahead of an old upper low that is now a decaying
trough axis over the Souther Plains. Wouldn`t be completely shocked
if there were a few brief sprinkles toward central Kansas later
tonight, but a deep layer of dry air below the mid-level clouds
should generally keep any rain from reaching the ground. Otherwise,
the only impact will be for afternoon temperatures just a degree or
two cooler than yesterday wherever thicker cloud cover persists.
Upper ridging expands back over the area later Wednesday and into
Friday, as the initial weak shortwave fully fizzles out and stronger
upper troughing moves inland over the West Coast. This will see a
return of sunnier conditions, allowing temperatures to rise into the
mid/upper 80s each day. South winds steadily increase, especially by
Saturday as the western trough moves over the Rockies and lee
troughing strengthens to our west. Morning lows will also warm into
the weekend as overnight winds stay more elevated.
By Saturday night and into Sunday, the upper trough over the western
CONUS will lift northeastward onto the Plains. Current guidance
keeps the core of this system (and thus the better height falls and
vorticity advection) well to our north. So the best rain
chances will stay north as well. Still, the system will push a
weakening cold front towards our area Sunday into Monday, which
could still be enough for a few scattered showers and/or
thunderstorms. Ahead of this front, there is high confidence in
warmth continuing through Sunday. However by the end of the
forecast period early next week, guidance quickly diverges on
how to handle the strengthening mid- level jet, particularly a
pair of shortwaves dropping southeast around a Gulf of Alaska
ridge. This leads to much lower confidence in temperatures and
rain chances for the end of the forecast period and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions with just increasing high clouds will
continue through the period. This will limit the potential for
shallow fog development this morning. Winds stay near calm
overnight, increasing to around 5-8 kts from the southeast during
the afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion