Cimarron, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

483
FXUS63 KDDC 042249
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) severe storms Sunday evening
  along and just ahead of a strong cold front.
- A second round of storms (some strong, but very low severe
  potential) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning along
  elevated frontal zone.
- Much cooler temperatures, especially Tuesday with highs in the
  60s, but a return to 80s by late workweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Sensible weather will become more active over the next couple of
days as a formidable autumn storm system moves out across Colorado
and across the Northern and Central Plains. Ahead of the system, the
leeside trough continued to deepen with a low developing along the
lee trough across northeastern Colorado. Active weather in terms of
organized thunderstorms will remain well northwest of our southwest
Kansas region this evening, however a weak trailing line of showers
and isolated storms will likely clip far west central Kansas before
weakening later on this evening as the bulk of the forcing for
ascent lifts across western Nebraska.
Going into Sunday, the main jet streak and mid level potential
vorticity anomaly will eject northeastward across the Dakotas,
resulting in a cold front push into western Kansas. In the wake of
the first vigorous shortwave trough will be a second within the
larger scale pattern which will move out of Idaho and across
Wyoming. This pattern will put western Kansas in a favorable right
entrance region of the upper level jet for enhanced upward vertical
motion to go along with the strong low level convergence along the
frontal zone itself. By late afternoon, all short term models show
the front extending southwest to northeast across west central
Kansas, generally along a Syracuse to Hays line. There should be
ample SBCAPE (75th percentile upwards of 1500 J/kg off the 12z HREF)
and deep layer shear for for at least widely scattered severe storms
in the first few hours upon initiation (which looks to be right
around 23Z or 6 PM CDT). The SPC Day 2 outlook of Marginal-1 looks
pretty good for now, but would not be surprised if we see a small
area upgraded in future outlooks given the pretty good CAPE/Shear
combo and intense low level convergence supporting rather well
organized convective clusters and or line segments during the early
to mid evening hours.
Looking ahead into Monday and Monday Night, the surface front will
push south of southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma, but the frontal zone around 850mb (~5kft AGL) will become
quasi-stationary across southwestern Kansas, and with ample low
level moisture remaining in vicinity of the frontal zone, additional
showers and thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the front
around 850mb. Not surprisingly, this is where the latest NBM has the
axis of highest QPF values Monday Night into early Tuesday -- 40-50%
probabilities of 24-hr QPF in excess of 0.25" across much of
southwest into central KS.
Monday through Wednesday will be much cooler with highs in the 60s
and lower 70s behind the front, but once this pattern breaks down
later in the week, we will re-enter a warm and dry pattern with
highs back in the 80s and near-zero precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Gusty southerly winds will continue through much of this TAF
period, especially into tonight and Sunday morning. Expect
winds to be sustained 15-20 knots with gusts 35-30 knots.
Additionally, LLWS is once again expected to increase into this
tonight given the development of a strong LLJ. Into late Sunday
afternoon and early evening, a front traversing southwest and
central Kansas will likely be the focus for thunderstorm
development. Some storms could impact the terminals after 21z,
especially DDC and HYS, but with low confidence in exactly
where storms will develop, will keep mention of storms off the
TAFs for now. Could need mention in subsequent updates.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Bennett

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion