Choctaw Beach, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS64 KMOB 250530
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern as we still expect
the southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough
extending from southeast Canada to north Texas to swing east-
southeastward and deepen with the axis reaching Alabama and the
central Gulf by midnight Friday night. The trough then stalls
between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper
high pressure area over the Atlantic. The trough then evolves
into a weak cut-off low over the southeast CONUS on Saturday, and
then meanders about through early next week as Tropical Cyclone
Humberto is forecast to track north-northwestward over the western
Atlantic. A surface low pressure area across western Kentucky is
expected to lift northeastward today and weaken into a trough,
with an associated weak cold front approaching our region from the
northwest. This front is expected to enter into our area tonight
and then stall near the coast on Friday before making a push
offshore Friday night.
Deep west-southwest flow will keep PWATs elevated to between 2.0-
2.25 inches over our entire area today. Mostly cloudy skies will
only allow our high temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s (or
around seasonal norms). As a result, MLCAPE values will be held at
bay and only reach between 1000 to 1500 J/kg. We will see the
next round of convective activity along the coast before daybreak,
and this convection will expand northward this morning, followed
by numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms most areas
persisting throughout the day. A few of the stronger thunderstorms
today and this evening will be capable of gusty surface winds up
to 40 mph, brief heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. Most of
the precipitation will become focused southeast of I-65 by late
this evening into Friday, prior to us drying our Friday night
through the weekend behind the weak cold front.
High temperatures will be around seasonal norms again on Friday,
before rebounding to slightly above normal over the weekend
through the first half of next week. The low temperature will
remain above normal through the entire forecast.
Beach Forecast: A LOW rip current risk is expected through early
next week, although there could be a brief period (several hours)
of a moderate rip current risk late this afternoon along the
Florida beaches. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR flight category prevails for the time being across the area.
Reductions in flight category are expected at times nearer the
coast through and just after daybreak due to increasing coverage
of showers and thunderstorms. After daybreak, shower and
thunderstorm activity increases across the entire area,
particularly during the afternoon hours. Outside of showers and
storms, VFR to MVFR flight category will prevail, with reductions
to IFR and perhaps locally LIFR flight category underneath heavier
showers and storms expected. Winds will remain out of the
southwest around 5 knots through daybreak, strengthening to 5 to
10 knots through the remainder of the day. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected outside of
locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with
occasional showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Otherwise, a
light southwesterly flow will shift westerly today, followed by a
light mostly offshore flow Friday night through the weekend as a
weak frontal boundary pushes south of the area. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  86  64  88  63  89  65  91 /  40  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  86  68  87  68  89  69  89 /  60  40  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  84  70  87  70  88  71  88 /  70  60  20   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   67  87  62  89  61  91  63  91 /  50  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  64  84  61  86  60  87  62  89 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      65  84  62  85  61  87  63  88 /  30  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   68  86  63  88  62  89  63  90 /  60  50  10   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion