Cherokee, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

586
FXUS64 KSJT 211132
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday with a marginal
  risk for severe storms along and north of I-20.
- Temperatures trend hotter today into Monday, then should be
  cooler by the middle of next week, along with additional
  precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Main concern for the short term are showers and thunderstorms and
a marginal risk for severe weather.
A weak impulse will move across the Red River Valley this
afternoon while at the surface a dryline will form just west of or
to the western edge of the CWA. Storms will form along the dryline
during the afternoon hours before moving toward the east and
southeast. Best dynamics will be toward the I-20 corridor and
points northward, so that area will have the best chance of
showers and thunderstorms (20-40%). Large hail and damaging winds
would be the main concern given ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and deep
layer shear around 40 knots. Storms will exit the area by evening
with a warm night expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
On Monday, an upper ridge will be centered over Mexico with our
area on its northeastern periphery. At the same time, an upper
trough/low will be diving south into the central Rockies. With a
strengthened 850mb thermal ridge in our area, temperatures will be
hot with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.
Some locations in the Big Country and Concho Valley could have
highs over 100. The record highs for Monday (Sep. 22) are 99 at
Abilene (in 2000) and 101 in San Angelo (in 1926).
The aforementioned upper low and trough will emerge into Kansas
by Wednesday, and then slowly move east to the mid-Mississippi
Valley Thursday. Models still differ with the specific strength
and placement of the upper trough and low, and on timing with the
arrival of the associated cold front. The NAM continues to be
fastest with the front, bringing it south into our central
counties by Tuesday late afternoon/evening, while other models
bring it through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with this front, and moisture
pooling along it could result in some locally heavy rainfall.
On Tuesday, temperatures will be hot ahead of the front with
highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. A faster arriving front could
limit highs to the upper 80s in our northern counties. The better
chance for cooler temperatures area wide looks to be Wednesday
and Thursday, when highs should be confined to the 80s.
With timing uncertainties and the possibility of an embedded
disturbance or two aloft moving over the area, chances of showers
and thunderstorms are in the forecast Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday, with rain chances dropping off from north to south by
Thursday.
Indications for the end of the week are for an upper level ridge
to shift east into the Plains and West Texas. At this time,
temperatures look to be near to slightly above normal with highs
in the mid 80s to near 90 Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period except at KJCT
where MVFR conditions are ongoing with stratus at 025. KSOA may
also see low stratus (015-025) move in though based on latest
satellite trends confidence of that is low. Either way, stratus is
expected to dissipate by 15z. Winds will be light throughout the
period, mainly from the south or southeast (160-190) with speeds
topping out around 10 knots along with a few gusts to 20 knots.
There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
with PROB30 mentioned for KABI. Farther south, chances will taper,
but SHRA/TSRA may occur as far south as KSJT and KBBD. +RA, GR,
and strong gusty winds may occur with the strongest storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  73  99  75 /  20  30   0  10
San Angelo  94  70  97  72 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    93  69  95  70 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   94  70  96  72 /  10  20   0   0
Sweetwater  96  72 100  73 /  20  10   0  10
Ozona       92  70  94  70 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       91  70  94  71 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...34-EPZ

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion