Chase, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

617
FXUS63 KICT 201845
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
145 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for showers and storms return this evening and
  continue into Sunday.
- Seasonable high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s through
  the upcoming week with mid-week chances for showers and
  storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon
indicate broad west/northwest flow aloft ahead of a shortwave
churning off the coast of southern California. A second mid/upper
wave continues tracking east over the Ohio River Valley as showers
and storms from earlier this morning moved out of southeast Kansas
through Missouri and Arkansas. Maintained some low PoPs in this area
this afternoon as short-term guidance highlights additional low-
level WAA that could trigger some pop-up showers and storms in
the anomalously-moist airmass. This activity is not expected to
be severe.
Short-term models prog another PV anomaly ejecting out of the
Rockies later this evening into tonight, which will provide broad
forcing for showers and storms throughout the forecast area. Per the
prior discussion, PWATs 150-175% of normal for this time of year
will allow for efficient rainfall and may result in localized
flooding concerns. This activity will continue through the overnight
hours and push into eastern Kansas throughout the day on Sunday.
Following this system, high temperatures Sunday and Monday are
expected to hover near 80 degrees areawide.
Mid-range model consensus then points to a potent mid/upper wave
rolling into the Rockies and then Central Plains late Monday into
Tuesday. Showers and storms are expected to move into the area off
the High Plains early Tuesday morning, with broad synoptic forcing
for ascent keeping rain chances in the area through Thursday
morning. Mid/upper ridging is forecast to follow in the wake of this
active pattern, keeping the area dry through the end of the week.
Seasonable high temperatures are forecast Tuesday through Saturday
with expected values in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions have returned at all sites and -SHRA/TSRA has
pushed southeast of all sites. These VFR condition will
continue through the afternoon and evening hours. Low VFR or
MVFR CIGS may return after 06Z at all sites as shower and storm
chances return. Model still remains mixed with the placement of
-SHRA/TSRA tonight into Sunday morning, therefore have opted for
 PROB30s at all sites with the most likely time window.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion