Charleston, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

803
FXUS61 KRLX 151704
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
104 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Staying dry and warm initially. A bit cloudier Tues and Wed,
with low-end rain chances in the east. Dry again to end the
work week, with better rain chances by Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1139 AM Monday...
A ridge of high pressure maintains its position over the upper Great
Lakes for the near-term, while an area of low pressure slowly moves
across the southeast Atlantic coastline. High pressure will be the
main driver of our weather pattern today across the lowlands with
high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Meanwhile, much
cooler conditions are expected over the higher elevations of eastern
West Virginia with highs only in the 60s and 70s.
The coastal low will bring more of an influence Tuesday with more
cloud coverage, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers
over the higher elevations. High temperatures will be seasonable for
mid-September, ranging from the 70s in the mountains to the upper
70s and lower 80s in the lowlands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1139 AM Monday...
The aforementioned coastal low will be located over the mid-
Atlantic for the middle of the week, bringing us more clouds,
cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of mountain showers.
This area of low pressure will pull away to the northeast
Thursday and a ridge will strengthen over the middle Ohio
Valley, which will lead to another warming trend and dry weather
areawide. High temperatures will be back in the upper 80s again
Thursday afternoon across the lowlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1139 AM Monday...
High pressure will remain in control Friday and Saturday with hot
and dry weather continuing. Models are suggesting that a cold front
may approach from the west Sunday, but there is still a bit of
uncertainty regarding the location and speed of this front, and if
it will actually make it into the central Appalachians before
falling apart. For now, the ensemble mean forecast is going with
seasonable temperatures and a slight chance of rain areawide,
which seems reasonable, given the pattern uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 104 PM Monday...
VFR conditions will continue through the rest of today. Early
Tuesday morning, expect some IFR valley fog at KEKN, along with
scattered to broken low stratus elsewhere. MVFR restrictions
have been added to the 18Z TAF package at KCRW and KHTS for low
stratus Tuesday morning.
Winds will remain light from the southeast today. Light
easterly winds are expected Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions associated with
Tuesday morning`s valley fog and low stratus may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions not expected at this time.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion