Cecil Field, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

978
FXUS62 KJAX 060607
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
207 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Coastal
  Flood Warning: Moderate Tidal Flood impacts within the St. Johns
  River Basin to the south of downtown Jacksonville
- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Tuesday, Likely
- Returning Late this Week and Next Weekend. High Rip Current Risk
  & Small Craft Advisories Continue.
- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Localized Flood Risk on Monday.
  Isolated Thunderstorms are Possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Periods of MVFR ceilings between 2,000 - 3,000 feet will remain
possible at the regional terminals through around 09Z. Lower
stratus ceilings may develop after 07Z at GNV and VQQ, but
confidence was too low to indicate IFR conditions in the TAFs at
this time. Showers are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity across our local Atlantic waters during the predawn
hours, with this activity then moving onshore and impacting the
SGJ terminals just before sunrise, with activity then progressing
westward across the Duval County terminals during the early
morning hours. Confidence in this scenario was high enough to
include TEMPO groups for brief wind gusts up to 25 knots and IFR
visibilities during heavier downpours. Embedded thunderstorms will
be possible within these heavier showers, but confidence was too
low to include vicinity thunderstorm coverage during the early
morning hours. Activity may extend northward to the SSI terminal,
but confidence in impacts was only high enough to include a PROB30
group after 10Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms are then
expected to develop during the morning and early afternoon hours
at the SGJ and Duval County terminals, and PROB30 groups for
thunderstorm impacts featuring wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR
visibilities during heavier downpours were used into the afternoon
hours. Activity will progress westward towards the GNV terminal
after 16Z, where confidence was high enough to include vicinity
thunderstorm coverage and a PROB30 group through around 23Z.
Showers and thunderstorms should then shift west of the regional
terminals after 00Z, with VFR conditions expected to prevail on
Monday evening. Easterly surface winds will remain sustained
around 10 knots overnight at SGJ, while northeasterly winds remain
sustained at 5 knots or less. Easterly winds will then increase to
around 15 knots and gusty at SGJ before 14Z, with speeds elsewhere
increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty before 17Z.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Mean upper ridging will remain situated to the northeast while a
cutoff low, which has begun to reopen, sits well to the west. A
southeasterly shift in the mid level flow has shifted a band of
tropical moisture northward into NE FL this afternoon. Some
forcing from a northward lifting shortwave will aid in deeper
updrafts and a few thunderstorms along I-75 and interior SE GA
through the late afternoon before exiting to the west. Some of
these storms may bring stronger winds aloft to the surface
resulting in occasional gusts up to 40 mph. Otherwise, while heavy
rains are likely given the moisture, the quick pace of showers
and isolated storms should keep flood potential limited and
nuisance flooding/ponding.
Tonight, another tongue of deeper moisture will push into the coast
as convergence enhances along the inverted trough. This will
generate another bout of coastal showers through the predawn hours,
mainly along the coast. Low temps tonight will read similar to this
morning`s observations, around the low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)
High pressure will remain to the northeast Monday, with weak
troughing along the coastal waters. Another day with moist onshore
flow, and quickly passing showers is expected. Could be enough
instability for a few storm inland during the afternoon. Highs
Monday in the lower to mid 80s.
The high will weaken as it moves further away to the northeast
Monday night into Tuesday, with coastal troughing dissipating.
Onshore shower are still expected, but chances will be decreasing.
Lows Monday night generally in the lower 70s. Highs Tuesday in the
middle 80s. Tuesday night is expected to be dry with lows in the
upper 60s
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through next Sunday)
A weak frontal boundary will move into the southeastern US and reach
just north of forecast area Wednesday. A largely dry day is forecast
for Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The front will
sink into southern GA Wednesday night into Thursday. Diurnal heating
and convergence associated with the front will yield increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
The front will move just to the south Friday into Friday night with
low on boundary over coastal waters, as high pressure builds to the
north. With high pressure ridging over inland counties, the best
chance for precipitation will be near the coast.
The area of low pressure is expected to lift to the north northeast
of the area Saturday, as front sinks further south of the area.
Except for the coast, where the moist onshore flow will brings
showers ashore, Saturday will be a largely dry day.
Temperatures will trend above normal through Thursday night, then
below through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue with elevated seas,
observed around 6-8 ft in the nearshore waters this afternoon as
onshore winds gust to 20-25 knots.
Another coastal trough will sharpen against the wedged surface
ridge tonight, continuing the onshore winds and rough seas through
Monday and Tuesday. Winds will relax as gradients loosen briefly
Wednesday. An incoming northeasterly surge will reach our waters
again Thursday night as a cold front pushes into the area. This
will likely require another round of Small Craft Advisory
headlines to end the week and likely into next weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Persistent onshore winds will continue to "trap" tides within the
St. Johns River basin, with an increasingly astronomical
influence to local tides this week due to Tuesday`s "Harvest" Full
Moon, with minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding continuing
throughout the upcoming week.
Coastal Flood Warning: includes the St. Johns River Basin,
Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW) and the northeast FL coast from
Mayport to Flagler Beach. Tidal levels will continue to crest
generally between 2 to 2.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
within the St. Johns River basin, with values around 2 feet above
MHHW and along the Atlantic coast south of Mayport and within the
ICWW. Moderate tidal flooding impacts include flooding of low-
lying roads and water surrounding some vulnerable structures.
Coastal Flood Advisory: includes coastal Nassau County and
coastal southeast GA. Water levels of 1.5 - 2 feet above MHHW
around times of high tide will mainly cause minor tidal flooding
impacts, including flooding of some boat ramps, docks, over-
topping of bulkheads and some tidal-prone roads in low-lying
areas.
This will be and extended duration coastal / tidal flood event,
as astronomical tides will not peak until the mid to late part of
the week. With brisk onshore flow continuing through Monday and
then potentially re-strengthening late next week, we can expect a
mix of Coastal Flood Advisories, Watches, Warnings to continue
into next weekend for the St. Johns River basin and possibly along
portions of coastal northeast FL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  69  87  67 /  30  10  10   0
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  30  10  20   0
JAX  83  73  86  70 /  50  10  30   0
SGJ  83  76  85  73 /  60  20  30  10
GNV  86  73  90  68 /  60  20  30   0
OCF  85  73  88  70 /  60  20  30   0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion