Carthage, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

874
FXUS64 KOHX 161109
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
609 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Scattered showers and storms Tuesday. Gusty winds and small hail
  will be possible, though overall impacts should be very little.
- Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal this week with
  temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s.
- Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) Friday through Monday, with
  a decreasing trend in temperatures for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Another pleasant and mostly dry day is drawing to a close.
Temperatures will settle into the 60s overnight with only patchy
fog possible, mainly near bodies of water and along the Plateau.
The 00Z CAMs are coming in a little hotter tonight with possible
convection tomorrow as we see another surge in moisture with
continued NNE flow aloft. There`s a low currently meandering up
along the east coast, and our winds aloft are helping to pull that
moisture back into the mid-levels. And, as mentioned by the
previous forecaster, that ridge to our west do indeed be a dirty
one, allowing for some rain and storms to develop tomorrow.
Measured PWAT on tonight`s sounding is 1.22"; model soundings for
tomorrow have PWATs back in the 1.4"-1.5" range. Very similar
environment as previous days with scattered storms: unstable with
the aid of daytime heating, and insufficient shear and lapse
rates. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible in the
strongest storms, but those will likely be few and far between.
Activity looks to largely dwindle beyond sunset tomorrow, though a
few stragglers look to remain into the overnight hours. The whole
area could see a pop-up shower or storm tomorrow, but the bulk of
the activity is currently favored along I-65 and points east.
Rain chances back off once again come Wednesday, though a small
passing shower could occur. Very slim chance though, around 5% or
less at this time. It will be another hot day with highs in the
80s to 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Not a lot of change through Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions
will continue with highs gradually creeping up by a degree or two
each day. By Friday, a dome of high pressure will be directly
overhead, leading to our hottest day this week with widespread
afternoon temps in the mid 90s. A trough developing across the
midwest will work its way east by this weekend, and this will
bring our next chance for a more widespread rain. Still seeing
some pattern differences at this point, but it does look like we
will at least see a slight decrease in temperatures and a slight
increase in rain chances, currently around 20-30% areawide through
this weekend. This isn`t looking like a false-fall type of temp
decrease, but we`ll take what we can get. QPF amounts are
currently near a quarter inch or so, though that value will likely
vary some between now and this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Overall we will see VFR conditions today with SCT to BKN clouds
040-080. There is a 30% chance for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms between 18 and 00z with slightly higher chances for
KCSV. MVFR can be expected in any showers. Winds will be light
out of the north up to 6 knots becoming variable this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  67  92  63 /  20  20   0   0
Clarksville    94  64  93  61 /  20  20   0   0
Crossville     80  59  81  57 /  20  20   0   0
Columbia       91  66  91  62 /  20  20   0   0
Cookeville     84  61  84  58 /  20  20   0   0
Jamestown      81  59  82  58 /  20  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   89  64  89  61 /  20  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   90  64  91  62 /  20  20   0   0
Waverly        92  65  92  63 /  20  20   0   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion