Carrollton, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

520
FXUS61 KAKQ 140555
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
155 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region this weekend, as another
area of high pressure builds into New England early next week.
This will allow for dry conditions to persist, along with a
modest warmup through Monday. Confidence continues to increase
that a developing coastal low impacts the region by the middle
of next week, resulting in the return of widespread cloud
cover, cooler temperatures, and increasing rain chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly cloudy and cool early this morning, with patchy fog
  possible over the Lower MD Eastern Shore.
Latest analysis shows surface high pressure over Atlantic
Canada, with surface ridging extending down the east coast
across our area. Meanwhile, a well- defined quasi- stationary
frontal boundary remains draped off the East Coast over the
Gulf Stream this evening. The front is oriented beneath a narrow
mid-level trough, which extends down the mid- Atlantic and
southeast coast. A weak area of low pressure is developing along
the front north of the Bahamas and will continue to drift NNW
offshore of the coastal Carolinas through the weekend. Aloft, an
upper-level omega block pattern remains in place over the
CONUS, with longwave ridging over the nation`s midsection
extending well north into central Canada, on either side of
troughing over QC/New England and the Pacific NW, respectively.
The trough to the south is responsible for some mid to high
level cloudiness in the SE, which will continue to gradually
expand across the area today. Meanwhile, additional mid-level
clouds continue to move in from the NW. Temps as of 130 AM
ranged from the mid 50 to around 60F inland with mid 60s along
the coast. Morning lows in the mid 50s for most inland areas
(locally upper 50s) and mid 60s along the coast. Some lows in
the lower 50s are once again possible in the typically cooler
inland locations, however, cloud cover adds some uncertainty.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Remaining generally dry with near normal temperatures through Monday.
- Breezy conditions are possible along the coast through Monday.
High pressure gradually builds southeast from Canada tomorrow
into Monday. Meanwhile, the sfc trough off the southeast coast
closes off, as low pressure begins to deepen further late
tomorrow and Monday. The resultant NE flow slowly increases due
to the compressing pressure gradient, with gusts again to ~15-20
kt along the coast tomorrow and ~20kt along the coast on Monday.
Given that the low remains offshore of the SE NC coast through
Monday night, rain chances remain relatively low away from NE
NC and far SE VA. PoPs remain ~20-30% in this area by late
Monday afternoon. High temperatures in the low- mid 80s each
day inland, upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting
  the area through the middle of next week with widespread rain
  and breezy winds along the coast possible.
- A warmup is expected by late week into next weekend.
Cool, dry high pressure again builds down into New England, and
will ridge south into the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low
lifts north along the coast through mid-week. Aloft, the
previously referenced upper ridge builds down across the Great
Lakes for the mid to late week period, as the PAC NW trough
builds in behind it across the Canadian Prairies, with the upper
pattern orienting SW to NE through midweek.
The main feature of note for our region remains the upper
trough that lingers off the Carolina coast, and there remains a
bit of a mixed signal from guidance with this feature. The
12z/13 GFS remains a bit more progressive and farther offshore,
with the CMC and ECMWF each a bit more protracted with rainfall
potential, showing a closed low solution that is closer to the
mid-Atlantic coast. Of note, the 12z/GFS has trended a bit
toward the EC/CMC consensus, but still lags behind with lower
QPF and a warmer, drier midweek scenario. For its part, the
NBM now advertising 30-50% PoPs across the southern half of the
area late Mon night into Tuesday, increasing to 40-60% across
the area Tue and Wed. Most model guidance has the trough lifting
out of the area by late week, with PoPs decreasing to 15-20% by
Thu night/Friday.
Given trends to increase PoP/QPF from the NBM and deterministic
models, confidence continues to slowly increase that another
cycle of increasing clouds and cooler conditions are likely for
Tue/Wed, with widespread rain and breezy winds along the coast
and occasional rain/drizzle inland possible for midweek. The
EPS continues to show 0.75-1" of rain north of I-64 and 1-1.7"
south of I-64 (highest totals across SE VA/NE NC). The GEPS
(Canadian ensemble) also leans towards to the EPS with >1"
possible across eastern VA/NC. The GEFS remains the low
outlier, showing < 0.55" west of I-95 and 0.5" east of I-95.
Again though, the GEFS has trended toward the slower EPS/GEPS
solution.
Given this potential, bear in mind that highs Tue and/or Wed
may well be cooler than the mid- upper 70s currently in the
forecast depending on exact timing and coverage of rainfall. In
any case, cooler weather can be expected Tue and Wed with temps
beginning to warm by Thu into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Drier
and warmer weather looks to return for Fri and Sat with highs
in the mid 80s possible Fri and low to mid 80s Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...
Generally VFR conditions continue through the 6z TAF period
across the terminals. However, some patchy fog is possible at
SBY between 8-12z with brief IFR VIS possible. Otherwise, SCT-
BKN cirrus continue to push inland from the south with a batch
of mid to high level clouds moving SE into the northern portion
of the FA. As such, expect partly cloudy skies NW and mostly
cloudy skies SE through the day. Cloud cover builds north
tonight. Light and variable/calm winds continue overnight apart
from N winds 5-10 kt at ECG. Winds become NE 5-10 kt inland and
10-15 kt across SE VA/NE NC late this morning into this
afternoon with gusts around 20 kt possible. The strongest winds
look to be at ECG where 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt
are possible this afternoon.
Outlook: Another coastal low approaches Mon through midweek,
leading to an increase in clouds, widespread rain, and the
potential for reduced CIGs and VIS across all area terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 955 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs have been extended into Sunday off the northern OBX and
  added off Virginia Beach into Sunday, mainly due to elevated
  seas. SCAs have also been issued for the Currituck Sound late
  tonight into Sunday.
- A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches with a
  Moderate Rip Risk across the northern beaches through Monday.
- Elevated NE winds are likely early next week.
High pressure is in place across eastern North America with weak low
pressure off the SE coast. The gradient between these features is
allowing for a ~15 kt NE wind over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters,
with 10-15 kt winds over the Lower Bay, and 5-10 kt over northern
portions of the marine area. Seas are ~3 ft N and 4-6 ft S. The
weak low off the SE coast drifts N late tonight through midday
Sunday allowing for a NE wind in increase, primarily S of Cape
Charles. This will allow for seas to remain elevated (5-6ft) off
the Currituck Outer Banks, and build to 4-5ft off VA Beach.
Therefore, SCAs have been extended through Sunday off the
northern Outer Banks, and have been added late tonight into
Sunday from the VA/NC border to Cape Charles. Additionally, a
15-20kt NE wind is expected across the Currituck Sound late
tonight into Sunday, so SCAs have been issued there as well
from late tonight through Sunday. The pressure gradient may
slacken to some extent later Sunday into Sunday night, before
tightening once again late Sunday night.
Another increase in NE winds (likely to SCA criteria across most of
the marine area) is expected early next week as a weak coastal low
likely develops to our south and potentially lifts north along the
coast. 12z guidance is in relatively good agreement showing winds
increasing late Monday afternoon. Peak wind speeds (NE between 15-25
kt with gusts to 20-30 kt) are expected to occur from Monday night
through Tuesday night. The highest wind speeds are expected to occur
across southern portions of the marine area. Winds are forecast to
diminish on Wednesday/Thursday but the latest GFS shows the low
lifting N along the coast during this period while the remainder of
the guidance has a much weaker low still S or SE of the local
area. Accordingly, there is still uncertainty regarding the
strength/track of any potential coastal low, SCAs appear likely
for at least the ocean due to seas, with a good chance of a
period of sustained 18+ kt winds across the Lower Bay, Lower
James River, and Currituck Sound as well. The current forecast
has widespread 5-6 ft seas/3-5 ft waves by Monday night/Tuesday.
Could definitely see seas a bit higher than 6 ft across the SE
VA/NE NC coastal waters.
Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in effect for the
southern beaches and a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Seas
remain elevated at the southern beaches with an 7-8 s period. This
high rip current risk continues across the southern beaches on
Sunday and Monday (and likely through Tuesday).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC/MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RMM
LONG TERM...MAM/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/ERI/RHR

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion