Carona, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

897
FXUS63 KSGF 171121
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered pulse thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into
  early this evening, mainly along and west of Highway 65.
  Strong to marginally severe wind gusts and small hail will be
  possible with a few of the stronger storms.
- Highs in the 90s continue across the area today and across
  the eastern Ozarks on Thursday.
- A cold front will move through the area from the west Thursday
  into Friday, bringing more seasonal temperatures and
  widespread rain chances (40-60%) to the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows somewhat of a blocky pattern with an upper
ridge over our area, an upper low across the Rockies and another
upper low over the east coast. The upper level energy was
beginning to move into Kansas and combined with a low level jet,
has forced some showers and storms out that direction. Closer to
our area it was partly cloudy and dry. 00z KSGF sounding
measured an 850mb temp of 20C (>90th percentile) therefore a
very warm airmass remains as seen by yesterdays high temp tying
a record at SGF. Some patchy fog was developing west of
Springfield where some scattered storms occurred yesterday
afternoon and evening.
Today: Expecting storms across Kansas to remain well west of the
area. However, as seen yesterday, daytime heating and enough
moisture will likely allow for another afternoon and evening of
pulse thunderstorms. Instability of 1000-2000j/kg is largely
confined to areas along and west of Highway 65 therefore those
will be the favored areas again. Would like to see a little
higher PW values and theta e diffs for severe pulses like we saw
yesterday however there should be enough mid level moisture for
perhaps one or two storms with downbursts winds to 60mph and
perhaps some marginally severe hail. Many areas will again
remain dry and PoPs are in the 20-30 percent range west of
Highway 65. Temps will again be warm however with increasing
cloud cover we may see slightly lower temps (low 90s) when
compared to previous days.
Tonight through Thursday: The upper level trough to the west
will push further east tonight and another low level jet will
develop across Kansas. Latest HREF guidance suggests storms may
develop both in southwest Kansas and eastern Kansas. These
eastern Kansas storms may try to move into far southeast Kansas
and western Missouri before sunrise Thursday. The upper trough
will then approach Missouri on Thursday and there are
indications that storms could be a little more widespread than
previous days with PoPs in the 30-60% range by afternoon and
evening with the highest chances west of Highway 65. If storms
indeed develop during peak heating then a few severe pulse
storms could occur again. Temps will likely be warmest east of
Springfield where precip will take longer to arrive. HREF LPMM
continues to show small, localized pockets of 1-2 inches of
rainfall where storms develop and slowly move. Again, this will
be highly localized with most areas seeing less than this.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Friday through the Weekend: Ensembles are in decent agreement
that the upper energy will move directly overhead on Friday.
This should lead to a cloudy and "cooler" day (highs in the
80s). Rain chances will also be higher (40-60%) across most of
the area. A west/northwest flow pattern then develops for the
rest of the weekend. This looks to allow disturbances to move
through the area with near daily rain chances. Ensemble cluster
analysis continues to show the precip signal in most scenarios
therefore the 30-50% precip chances look reasonable both days.
The clouds and precip chances will keep high temps in the low to
mid 80s which is much closer to average for mid September.
Next Week: Ensembles then diverge as a strong/deep upper level
low moves southeast out of Canada and into the northern or
central plains. The track of this disturbance will have large
implications on our precip chances and they are currently less
than 30 percent due to this uncertainty. Overall the precip
chances over the next 5-6 days are encouraging given the ongoing
severe drought over a large part of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Other than some brief patchy fog at JLN at the beginning of the
TAF period, VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites.
Winds will remain light and variable with a slight southeasterly
wind this morning then turning northerly or westerly by
afternoon and evening however speeds will be less than 10kts.
There is a 20-30 percent chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon
at the sites however confidence is too low to include at this
time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KUNO: 97/1953
September 18:
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion