Carlsbad, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

683
FXUS64 KSJT 191129
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
629 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, with above normal temperatures today.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
  the first half of next week.
- Temperatures trend hotter this weekend into Monday, then
  should be cooler by Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Look for quiet weather across the area for the next 24 hours.
However, it will be hot this afternoon and feel even more hot due
to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s
which is above normal for mid September. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An embedded disturbance will move across the northern Texas late
Saturday. This may be enough to support a low chance for an
isolated rain shower or thunderstorm on Saturday evening through
Sunday. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will largely be limited to
areas near the I-20 corridor and northward given the track of
this disturbance.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate a
low pressure system developing across the Plains. However, the GFS
keeps the low centered further to the north, which will limit
rain chances given the track of the low pressure center. Given the
differences in model tracks and how much the low intensifies, it
seems reasonable to keep rain chances (around 20%) limited for
next week given the uncertainty. This may change if higher levels
of consistency are seen in future model runs. Regardless, what
seems most likely is we see a weak cold frontal boundary move into
the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Slightly cooler
temperatures will result, but highs will still remain in the upper
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Expect VFR conditions at the terminal the for the next 24 hours.
The wind will be light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     93  70  94  71 /  10   0  20  10
San Angelo  92  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
Junction    92  65  93  66 /  10   0  10   0
Brownwood   93  67  93  68 /  10   0  10  10
Sweetwater  92  69  93  70 /  10  10  20  10
Ozona       90  66  91  67 /  10   0  10   0
Brady       90  67  90  68 /  10   0  10   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion