Carlsbad Caverns National Park New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

785
FXUS64 KMAF 071722
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- A cold front is expected to approach the area today, bringing
  cooler temperatures areawide and chances (10-35%) of isolated
  showers/storms across southeast New Mexico.
- Near zero rain chances and hot temperatures return late week
  into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough still off the
California, with Hurricane Priscilla churning south of Baja. Farther
east, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are under southwest flow
aloft on the northwest periphery of a ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast states.
To the north, mesoanalysis shows a cold front entering the South
Plains, and local surface winds are already backing to east as a
result.  This feature may make it into the northeast zones before
sunup, but this is weak enough that diurnal heating should slow
and/or stall it later this morning.  This will result in afternoon
highs ~ 3-5 F above normal.  Even so, this is about 5 F cooler than
yesterday.  CAMs aren`t really bullish in developing convection
along the front, but do keep isolated to scattered chances over
Southeast New Mexico as shortwaves continue rotating through the
ridge.
Tonight, the front pushes into the area after sundown, but the LLJ
is forecast to redevelop, and mixing and increased cloud cover
should retard radiational cooling.  Lows should still average at
least 10 F above climatology.
Wednesday, with the front well into the area, should be the coolest
day this forecast as highs top out only a degree or so above where
they should be for this time of year.   Isolated convection will be
possible along the front, mainly along and south of the Pecos. This,
as well as plenty of cloud cover, will keep a lid on temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Mid level ridging builds back and intensifies over the region by the
end of this week keeping any fall weather at bay. This will lead to
temperatures well above normal with highs in the 80s to low 90s each
afternoon and lows in the 50s/60s. The warmest conditions are
expected this weekend with temperatures potentially nearing record
highs. Strong subsidence will keep PoPs at zero through at least
Saturday.
By early next week, the ridge begins to break down as a large upper
trough approaches the region from the west. Any and all fronts look
to remain well to our north keeping temperatures well above normal.
However, increasing southwesterly flow aloft and well-timed
disturbances could bring a chance of rain back to the region as
early as Sunday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
VFR conditions prevail. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms are
possible near HOB and CNM later this afternoon and overnight.
However, confidence was a bit too low to include PROB30s for these
terminals at this time. Generally easterly winds will become a bit
gusty at times this afternoon before diminishing to 6-10 kts later
tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 83  63  80  62 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                   88  68  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Stockton            87  65  84  64 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           76  59  71  58 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                    81  59  79  59 /  20  20  10   0
Marfa                    80  56  77  57 /   0  10  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     86  64  83  64 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   86  64  82  64 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     86  65  82  64 /  10  10  10   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...13

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion