Carlisle, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

032
FXUS64 KHGX 050539
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Rising moisture will reduce fire weather potential through next
  week, though continue to use caution when working with open
  flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots.
- Increasing moisture will result in increasing rain chances for
  the coastal areas and Gulf waters Sunday into next week.
- Small craft will need to exercise caution through Sunday morning.
  A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Gulf waters
  through Sunday morning due to expected frequent wind gusts up to
  25kt and seas up to 6-8ft possible.
- Beachgoers should also be aware that there is an increased risk
  for rip currents through Sunday. Increasing swells and winds
  may lead to minor coastal flooding at times of high tide.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
No significant changes to the forecast. Easterly flow will usher
in more moisture that will help initiate showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, mainly south of I-10.
The majority of rainfall will occur over the Gulf waters. High
pressure will build in overhead over the course of the week,
reducing rain chances for most of the area.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to run above normal with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and isolated mid 90s west of
Katy. OVernight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
The persistent, moderate onshore flow will lead to a couple of
hazards along area beaches through Sunday. A Rip Current
Statement is in effect through Sunday night as there is a high
risk of strong rip currents. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been
issued through Sunday evening for the Barrier Islands as water
levels climb to around 3.6-4.0ft above Mean Low Low Water (MLLW).
Here are a few impacts we have seen during previous minor coastal
flooding events with similar conditions:
 - When water levels reach 3.7ft above MLLW, water may begin to reach
   Highway 87 at Highway 124 on Bolivar Peninsula, and on Beach
   Drive near Blue Water Highway in Surfside.
 - At 4.0ft above MLLW, minor low lying streets may begin on the
   West End of Galveston, Highway 124 between High Island and
   FM-1985 may begin to flood, and the lowest streets in Jamaica
   Beach may be begin to flood.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period. ESE
winds at 06-12 KTS through around 02Z today, then relaxing to
03-05 KTS for the rest of the overnight hours into early morning
Sun. Winds will turn E and strengthen again by mid to late
morning. Some sites may see gusts of around 16-20 KTS on occasion
during the afternoon to early evening hours. Low chances of rain
for much of the day, and if any showers do develop, the likely
locations for them would be near and along the sea/bay breeze.
Cotto
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended for the Gulf waters
into Sunday morning due to easterly winds of 15-20kt and frequent
gusts to 25kt and seas 4-6ft with occasional seas to 6-8ft. Small
craft may need to continue to exercise caution through the
remainder of Sunday as the wave heights may be slow to decrease
and winds will still be moderate to strong. The persistent,
moderate onshore flow has led to increased water levels and risk
of rip currents. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through
Sunday morning with tides running around 3.6-4.0ft above MLLW.
Light easterly to southeasterly winds will persist through much
of next week with low seas. There will be a daily risk of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Adams/Fowler
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Colorado, and
Wharton counties.
Improving moisture levels are anticipated going into next week with
afternoon RH values ranging from 33-50 percent inland. On the
whole, the fire weather danger should be mitigated by these
conditions, though caution should still be exercised when handling
open flames in any areas with particularly dry vegetation. Be
mindful when handling equipment that could create unintended
sparks (i.e. loose chains).
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  92  70  92 /  10  20  10  20
Houston (IAH)  73  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  77  87  78  87 /  30  30  10  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 AM CDT this morning
     through this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Adams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion