Canby, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

435
FXUS63 KMPX 021947
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with
  near record highs and lows through Sunday.
- Windy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with gusts of 35
  to 50 mph possible, strongest Sunday morning.
- Much cooler next week with areas of frost possible Tuesday
  night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Broad ridging across most of the CONUS has brought very warm air
northward across the region and even into Canada today.
Temperatures have surged into the 80s and should continue to
warm another couple degrees before maxing out. A weak shortwave
will pass across northern MN this evening which could spark a
few thunderstorms, but any activity should remain north of our
area. Winds tonight will be light and given the relatively dry
air in place, temperatures will bottom out in the upper 50s to
mid 60s, which will negate a chance of record warm lows for
Friday. Consult the climate section below for details on records
this weekend.
A deep trough on the west coast will continue east slowly across
the Rockies through Saturday. Thermal ridging building northward
to the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley will allow
temperatures to increase Friday and Saturday. 925 mb temps
greater than +24C will bring highs into at least the upper 80s
area wide. These readings will be even warmer west of I-35
where 925 mb temps of +26 to +28C are possible. Highs in the
lower 90s are a very good bet, and some mid 90s are even possible
in west central MN. As the trough approaches Friday night, a
potent LLJ will stretch from the southern Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Surface winds will remain elevated Friday
night and could be quite strong come Saturday and Sunday. The
potential strength has been fluctuating with the guidance, but
forecast soundings and NBM probabilities suggest at least 30-35
kt gusts are likely through the weekend. Some gusts could exceed
this, especially early Sunday as a 50+ kt jet streak at 850 mb
passes through. We will probably need Wind Advisories at some
point this weekend. The jet streak will shift north in the
afternoon as a cold front reaches western MN, allowing winds to
gradually ease in the late afternoon and early evening. Given
the extensive mixing Friday and Saturday nights, temperatures
will remain very warm in the lower 70s which would be enough to
set records at all climate sites. However, with the front
passing through later Sunday, lows for that date will occur at
midnight Sunday evening and should be below record levels. If
the front had not passed through, record lows for Sunday could
have been broken by ~10 degrees!
Cannot rule out a random shower or two with the cold front, but
most will stay dry. As the front settles into and stalls in
Iowa and southern WI late Sunday night and Monday, additional
showers could develop along it. Most of the activity will
remain south of the area, but low PoPs are still warranted
across southern MN and western WI.
Surface high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Tuesday night. Clear skies, calm winds, and dew
points in the 20s will set up ideal conditions to bring the
first potential widespread frost or light freeze outside of the
metro.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Accas out there this morning will diminish through the day, with
mostly clear skies expected this afternoon through tonight.
Pressure gradient and associated winds will be strongest today
from south central up into east central MN and western WI.
Tonight winds will go under 5kts. We will likely see areas of
fog develop over northeast MN that will build down toward
central MN, with some fog possible down into central MN late
tonight, though the high starting point for temperatures we will
have from the highs this afternoon may make fog just out of
reach for tonight.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 20-25G30-40 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Record lows/highs for this weekend:
FRISATSUN
MSP    72/90   68/89       63/88
STC    64/88       64/88       58/89
EAU    72/89       67/86       64/84
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dye
CLIMATE...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion