Callaway, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS63 KFGF 040512
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth today and Saturday.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Saturday evening across most of eastern North Dakota,
  extending into far Northwest Minnesota
- Rain over most of northeastern North Dakota Saturday night into
  Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing in far
northwest MN since 11 PM, with more robust convection near
Winnipeg. This continues the thoughts in previous update
regarding potential for strong to severe wind gust potential.
Most likely scenario is that most robust convection stays north
of the international border, thus relatively best potential for
stronger storms resides there. However, there is still a small
chance that robust convection develops just south of the
international border.
UPDATE
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
There is a 30% chance for scattered thunderstorms near the
international border tonight. Should thunderstorms develop, they
will hold the potential to become strong to severe, mainly in
the form of strong winds to 60 mph.
This potential is driven by high confidence in strong low level
jet amid well mixed and relatively dry air mass developing
underneath the convective cloud layer. This set up may allow
downdrafts from elevated convection to transfer 50 to 60 mph
gusts toward the surface. While there will be a surface
inversion in place, guidance hints that this inversion may not
be relatively weak making it easier for descending downdrafts
to reach the ground.
Main uncertainty with this potential revolves around whether or
not convection becomes robust enough before pushing into Canada to
allow its downdrafts to penetrate through the inversion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...Synopsis...
Ridging over the central US has resulted in a large area of well
above average temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Upstream, a pronounced trough is evident on water
vapor with a strong upper level low located over central California.
This large trough will the catalyst for unsettled weather over the
weekend, including a risk for severe weather late Saturday.
As the surface low departs late Sunday, cold air will be dragged in
behind, resulting in frost/freeze concerns Monday, Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings. Guidance has sped up the passage of the
surface high compared to 24 hours ago, leaving much uncertainty
if Tuesday or Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the week.
...Near Record heat...
Near record/record heat is forecast this afternoon across the entire
FA, and again for Saturday in southeastern ND/much of MN. 850 mb and
925 mb temperatures today are the warmest we have yet seen this
week. Similar/slightly higher values build into our far south for
Saturday afternoon. With only a few cirrus clouds, very efficient
heating is leading to temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
this afternoon. This seems reasonable again for Saturday in
southeast ND/much of MN.
...Thunderstorms Saturday...
A cold front will be draped across northeastern ND Saturday
afternoon, slowly propagating east with time. Out ahead of the
front, a ribbon of 1500 J/Kg MUCAPE looks to exist. There are many
problems environmentally though for widespread severe thunderstorm
development. First, capping looks to be an issue east of the Red
River Valley. Second, the best shear is well displaced to the west,
closer to the cold front. That leaves just a sliver of real estate
where severe storms could form, basically along and behind the cold
front in the region highlighted by the SPC in the level 1 out of 5
marginal risk. As better lift overspreads the region late in the
day, thunderstorms should develop across the risk area. These storms
will be elevated, with a mean wind that favors them remaining
parallel to the front. Mid level lapse rates of 7-8 degrees/Km
will work in storms favor if they can get over the meager
instability, which looks to be the limiting factor for severe
weather. The main threat is hail to the size of quarters with
any stronger cores that form. While many storms will likely
develop in this frontal corridor, only a handful are anticipated
to become strong to severe.
...Rain Saturday Night - Sunday...
As the surface low tracks from the Nebraska Panhandle on Saturday
northeastward towards the Lake of the Woods midday Sunday, a
deformation band will stretch from southwest to northeast on the
lows cold side, impacting northeastern ND into far northwestern MN.
1 to 2 inches of rain is forecasted in this steady, stratiform band.
Just to the east of this stratiform band, the thunderstorms
mentioned above will lead to locally higher amounts on its eastern
fringe. Rainfall totals taper off dramatically to the south and
east.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Main impact to aviation will be high confidence in low level
wind shear between through 14Z across the region. Strongest low
level winds will maximize between 1-6kft at around 50-60kt out
of the southwest. Recent observations are suggesting localized
gusts at the surface will be in the 20-30 kt range out of the
south. This is lowering confidence in gusts tonight through
Saturday morning at all TAF sites, with some gusts up to 35 kt
possible until 16Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast at all sites except for
KDVL after 14Z Saturday due to MVFR ceilings. A front slides
through the region Saturday shifting winds out of the north. The
front will move through the region from northwest to southeast,
and most probable timing of the frontal passage has been
included within all TAFs.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast after 00Z
Saturday evening within portions of eastern ND into northwest
MN. This will impact some TAF sites like KDVL before 06Z, and
possibly KGFK (40% chance). A few storms may be strong to severe
bringing erratic gusty winds in excess of 45kt as well as hail
in addition to lightning.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion