Calico Basin, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS65 KVEF 010546
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1046 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A series of disturbances will roll through the Western US this
  week, bringing precipitation chances to the southern Great Basin
  and dry, breezy conditions elsewhere.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.
Late-morning satellite imagery continues to show a broad swath of
mid- and high-level clouds associated with a shortwave trough across
eastern Nevada and northwest Arizona. A few isolated showers and
embedded thunderstorms are also noted across far northern Lincoln
County, but this activity should move north and east of the area
over the next few hours. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue
with breezy afternoons persisting through mid-week. Temperatures
will remain near seasonable values until late in the week when the
next system approaches. Model guidance continues to come into better
agreement regarding the timing and strength of the shortwave, most
likely arriving on Friday. Similar to today`s system, late-week
precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent) appear to be largely
confined to the Sierra and southern Great Basin. However, the wind
and temperature response should be more robust, with widespread
gusts of 20 to 40 mph on Friday and temperatures falling 4 to 8
degrees below normal over the weekend. Ensemble guidance suggests
troughing will linger over the western US into next week, keeping
temperatures seasonably cool and breezes elevated.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will favor diurnal direction patterns through the TAF period, with
sustained wind speeds between 8 and 12 kts. Occasional gusts between
15 and 20 kts cannot be ruled out through the afternoon from the
south (variability between 160 and 220 true), but are not expected
to prevail. FEW aoa 25 kft will clear out through the day.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will
favor diurnal direction patterns through the TAF period, with
sustained wind speeds between 8 and 12 kts. Cannot rule out
occasional gusts at each terminal in the afternoon with speeds
between 15 and 20 kts, but not expecting gusts to prevail. FEW aoa
25 kft will clear out through the day.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Planz/Woods
AVIATION...Soulat
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion