Burke, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

324
FXUS63 KJKL 171451
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1051 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather looks to persist through the weekend.
- Temperatures will continue to be above normal through this
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
Fog continues to diminish in the river valleys and should be fully
dissipated within the next half-hour. Only edits needed were to
update the hourly temperatures in the grids and for minor updates
to Sky grids.
UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did beef up the fog outside of the river valleys and extended it
deeper into the morning. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones
and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure over the Ohio Valley as
deeper low pressure is lifting north along the East Coast. Between
these features, high clouds from the low in the east has not been
able to hold off the fog developing and thickening in the valleys
of eastern Kentucky early this morning. As such, we have issued an
SPS addressing this concern through the morning commute.
Otherwise, temperatures currently vary from the mid 50s in the
foggy valley locations to the lower 60s on the ridges. Meanwhile,
amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are running in the mid
50s to lower 60s - most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain quite
similar to each other aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a weakening of the features that have
controlled our weather for the past few days. The eastern trough
will continue to fill and lift northeast into Thursday morning
while the 5h ridge to the west of the area starts to fade out.
Most of the relatively weak and insignificant mid-level energy
will accompany the eastern trough as it gradually pulls away. The
small model spread through the period still supports using the NBM
as the starting point for the forecast grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to include some terrain
enhancements for temperatures tonight.
Sensible weather features a continuation of our warm and mostly
dry weather pattern with the threat for any convection shifting
south of the Tennessee border but plenty of clouds remaining over
the area. We will be looking at a similar night compared to this
one heading into Thursday morning with a moderate ridge to valley
temperature split and fog mainly in the river valleys. Thursday
looks like another warm and partly cloudy day with dry conditions.
Winds will be light through the period.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
enhancing ridge to valley temperatures difference tonight. As for
PoPs, they were kept in the single digits to near zero through
the period.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
Again, the main changes to the extended forecast on this shift
were to push the PoP and thunder chances back another 24 or so
hours until later in the new work week. Did also continue the
terrain based adjustments for temperatures each night through the
weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
BLUF: warm and dry conditions expected to persist into early next
week.
Ridging aloft continues to build eastward through the end of the
work week, keeping conditions relatively benign. Models remain in
good agreement that ridging continues over the area through
Saturday, as a dominant high sweeps eastward across southern Canada.
A deepening low downstream of the high will enhance flow along the
eastern periphery of the high, sending a colder air mass surging
through the northeast. The primary source of uncertainty for the
extended forecast period revolves around whether or not that cold
front makes it this far south before a warm front tied to a stalled
shortwave in the northern Plains lifts through the greater
Appalachians.
Global ensemble guidance continues to push back increases in PoPs to
later and later, which has been happening with each model run over
the last three days. NBM PoPs are in the 10-15% range for Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. No adjustments made to these PoPs
because run-to-run consistency in timing is poor, and these low-end
PoPs reflect the variability and wishy-washy nature of recent
guidance in the day 5 and beyond timeframe.
Temps under the building ridge will continue warming through the end
of the week, reaching the low 90s on Friday and Saturday (the two
warmest days of the week) across eastern Kentucky. This is 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. NBM temperature spreads
are very small (3-4 degrees at most) indicating high confidence in
these temperatures occurring. Temperatures will, as always, be
5-10 degrees cooler near the ridgetops. Overnight lows in the 50s
and 60s into the weekend, and clear skies would provide a boost to
radiational cooling that would keep nighttime temperatures on the
lower end of that range.
Ensemble guidance begins to deviate on temperatures after Monday
and Tuesday, but overall guidance suggests that even if there is
a cooldown early next week, that temperatures will still be above
average for this time of year. Climate Prediction Center
highlights roughly 60% chances of above normal temperatures in
their 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
Localized IFR and worse conditions are found in the valleys early
this morning, and some of this has worked into a few of the TAF
airports. These will be impacted for another hour or so, there.
Then VFR conditions can be expected during the rest of the period
with a renewed threat for river valley fog potentially reaching a
couple of the terminals late tonight into Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, winds will be light and variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CAMDEN/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion