Buford, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

607
FXUS63 KBIS 292342
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
642 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
  state through this evening. The threat of severe weather is
  very low.
- Mostly dry conditions continue through the middle of the week,
  though a few stray showers, perhaps with a rumble or two of
  thunder, are possible.
- Above average temperatures and breezy conditions continue
  through the middle of the week.
- Cooler, more seasonable conditions, and 20 to 40 percent rain
  chances return at the end of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Scattered showers south of a stationary front have been
persistent across parts of south central North Dakota through
the afternoon and into the evening. Very little lightning
activity has been observed, with SPC mesoanalysis advertising
modest capping in place across the state. There have been no
real reports of precipitation with any of these showers but
would guess at least sprinkles underneath them. Some uncertainty
in how long they will persist as they drift north with an
embedded vort max but threat of lightning will quickly diminish
with sunset. Updated grids for the night but no big changes
besides continuing POPs for a couple of hours in line with radar
trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A weak stationary front across much of North Dakota is currently
accessing some weak to modest elevated instability and creating
a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. As this front slowly
lifts this evening a few more of these isolated thunderstorms
are possible. The chances for stronger surface based storms are
still low given high capping. Shear is also low, although there
is some veering of hodographs. With capped surface cape, severe
weather chances are still very low through this evening,
although isolated thunderstorms are possible along and east of
Highway 83. Otherwise look for most mild lows in the 50s and 60s
tonight. Overall dry atmosphere will bring limited chances for
fog tonight. An increasing gradient aloft could also bring a
steady southerly wind through tonight. Tuesday, surface front
lifts north similar to a warm front while a surface trough sets
up across western portions of the state. The overall result will
be another warm day. Instability will again be found with modest
amounts of capping. Thus an isolated thunderstorm is possible,
although not high enough for PoPs at this time. With the
mentioned surface trough to our west, a stronger pressure
gradient forms Tuesday, bringing some breezy to perhaps windy
winds. 850 mb winds are also quite strong on Tuesday, although
the mentioned capping and lower level inversions may limit how
much of this wind is mixed down. Left in NBM forecast for now,
although sustained wind speeds could approach advisory criteria
of 30 mph, with gusts near 40 mph. This could bring some
elevated fire weather concerns, although the lower RH values are
more west of the higher winds. These higher winds may bring
some increased rate of spreads. Overall confidence was not high
enough to message a fire weather threat, although something to
monitor. High temperatures will remain warm on Tuesday, and
generally in the 80s. Tuesday night, surface trough moves across
the state. This could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm
across the west and perhaps the east. Breezy southerly winds may
also linger. Southwest flow aloft remains for Wednesday and
Thursday maintaining above normal temperatures. Weak instability
could again bring a few thunderstorms, although current
forecast has mainly dry conditions. Breezy to perhaps windy
winds may also linger across the east on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be in the 80s with some upper 70s, while lows remain
in the 50s and 60s.
A trough pattern still looks to set up later this week into the
weekend. High confidence remains in cooler more near to perhaps
slightly below normal temperatures, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 40s and 50s. NBM continues at least chance PoPs for
Friday and Sunday, with slight chances on Saturday. Of note are
clusters starting to hint this wave could come in the form of a
split wave feature. Depending how these splits move through the
area could limit or enhance the chances for precipitation. Thus
will keep with NBM PoPs for the time being.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period.
A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible to start
the TAF period across parts of central North Dakota, with east
to southeast winds staying elevated through the overnight hours.
Winds will become predominantly south-southeast on Tuesday, with
gusts approaching 30 knots. We could see an isolated shower or
thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon but too low of confidence to
include at any terminal with this update.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Jones

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion