Buffalo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

273
FXUS64 KFWD 191040
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with
  afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected this morning
  and afternoon as a cluster of storms moves through North Texas.
- Low rain chances persist this weekend, but a stronger system
  could better rain chances and slightly cooler weather next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 125 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/
A weak frontal boundary remains stalled just to our north-
northwest, and can be broadly seen in both surface wind
observations and on radar where isolated convection continues to
develop. Further north in Oklahoma, scattered showers and storms
are developing in western-central Oklahoma in response to a
passing mid-level shortwave disturbance, and will gradually move
south-southeast through the rest of the overnight hours. Latest
high-res guidance is not handling what is currently on radar, so
we will continue to keep an eye on how things develop. The cluster
and subsequent outflow boundary are expected to move across the
Red River generally between 8-10AM and advance south the rest of
the morning and afternoon. While severe weather is not
anticipated, we can not rule out a strong wind gust if the
cluster holds together as it crosses the Red River. Better rain
chances will remain in East Texas, though additional isolated
convection may develop further west along the outflow boundary as
it moves through the region this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures
are expected to peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s overall, though
wherever showers develop in the afternoon may inhibit better
warming. As we head into the evening and night, coverage of
showers and storms will wane with the loss of daytime heating.
The upper low to our north and the trough will finally eject
eastward, with broad ridging building in across South Texas and
Mexico as we head into Saturday. North and Central Texas will
remain on the northern periphery of the ridge, with more W-NW flow
aloft. A shortwave disturbance will make its way across the
Central-Southern Plains during the day tomorrow, bringing
additional showers and storms to Oklahoma in the afternoon. Most
of this activity should remain to our north, though isolated
showers and storms will be possible in the vicinity of the Red
River and in our northwestern counties. Severe weather is not
anticipated with any of this activity, though lighting and gusty,
erratic winds may impact any outdoor activities or events.
Otherwise, another day of high temperatures in the upper 80s to
mid 90s is expected.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 125 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/
/Saturday Evening Onward/
Broad mid-level troughing will dominate the eastern CONUS as we
head into the weekend, shunting the Mexico-Desert Southwest ridge
a bit westward. W-NW flow overtop the Central-Southern Plains will
allow for our unsettled weather patten to continue as
disturbances flow across the region. Daily chances for showers and
storms will prevail Sunday through the majority of this upcoming
week. There remains the potential for a stout upper low to swing
through the Plains near midweek, sending a cold front south. If
the cold front is able to make it through the region, we would
experience cooler temperatures as we head into late this upcoming
week. However, guidance is quite split on whether or not the front
will pass through, with the GFS keeping the front to our north
the rest of the week in North Texas and the Euro fully pushing it
through mid week. 30% of total ensemble members reflects the GFS
solution at this time. All this being said - it is currently more
likely that the front will push through before the end of the
week, but there is still about a 1 in 3 chance that the front
would remain to our north for longer. We`ll continue to keep an
eye on future guidance for better confidence and alignment as we
get closer in time.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
A cluster of storms is currently moving E-SE through Oklahoma,
poised to clip the Bonham cornerpost over the course of the
morning. This cluster will likely remain east of the D10 sites,
only nearing DAL close to noon. The attendant outflow boundary
will continue SE through North Texas today, making it to D10
around 14Z. This will shift winds out of the northeast
temporarily. By the afternoon, winds in D10 will gradually shift
further east and then southeast. The winds at ACT will remain more
E-ESE as the outflow moves through Central Texas this afternoon.
Low chances for isolated showers and storms are possible this
afternoon in portions of the region. If anything is able to
develop, gusty, erratic winds and lightning will be the main
impacts. At this time the thunder probability is low and have
transitioned to VCSH, but we will keep an eye on any increased
lightning potential. Any rain should wane with the loss of daytime
heating, with no additional rain expected overnight into Saturday
morning.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  73  93  74  91 /  20   0   5  10  30
Waco                92  70  92  71  92 /  20   5   5   5  20
Paris               89  68  92  69  90 /  40   0   5  10  30
Denton              92  69  93  70  91 /  20   0  10  20  40
McKinney            92  70  93  71  91 /  30   5   5  10  30
Dallas              93  73  95  74  93 /  20   0   5  10  30
Terrell             91  68  92  70  90 /  40   0   5  10  30
Corsicana           92  70  93  72  92 /  20   5   0   5  20
Temple              92  68  92  70  92 /  20   0   5   5  20
Mineral Wells       94  68  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  20  30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion